Odds to Win 2010 World Series – Lincecum, Lee Just The Start Of Major Battle

Breaking down the odds to win the 2010 World Series is a debate between “nerds” and “sports fans”.

I won’t argue that a lot of the metrics, MLB betting trends and stats should have an impact on the way you bet this series because that’s how baseball works.

But any sports fan can see that the World Series is all about momentum this year.

Texas Rangers (7-4) vs. San Francisco Giants (7-3)

Baseball Odds to Win 2010 World Series – Texas -145 / San Francisco +115

First Game: Wednesday, October 27th --- 7:55pm EST (FOX Network)

The San Francisco Giants Are An Intangibles Team

Since I cover the American League during the MLB betting regular season, I had to go to my fellow experts who pay close attention to teams like San Francisco in the National League. It also helps to have a brother who lives in the area who frequents games, and everyone basically told me to look out for their sharp defense. So I watched a couple games in September, took some notes and was pretty impressed.

Then I watched the Giants in the playoffs and their fielding defense is OK, but it’s far from disciplined. What makes me question their odds win the 2010 World Series is that they’re simply a messy team.

So why should anybody like them? Because, to put it simply, they’re as scrappy as you get. They’re like the 2004 Boston Red Sox without the talent. Betting on momentum and hot streaks is a very dangerous game, especially in propositions, but you can’t ignore what the Giants are capable of doing when they get an inch of momentum.

Rangers Are Superior (Technically Speaking)

Better hitting. Better pitching. Better fielding. Better athletes. Plus, after throttling the two best teams in the American League through their playoff run, they have that all important “swagger” quality about them. Of course, it helps their odds to win the 2010 World Series that Cliff Lee is on the mound.

Much adieu has been made about Cliff Lee, and you can’t ignore the numbers: undefeated in the playoffs, 1.26 ERA, 4 post season games with 10 strikeouts and zero walks (there’s only been eight games like that in history). From a technical standpoint, he has been insanely sharp and what he does from a technical standpoint is simply amazing. I love head hunting pitchers, and Cliff Lee is that in a nutshell.

The Bullpen’s Will Win (Or Lose) This Series

With everyone focusing on Cliff Lee, C.J. Wilson and Colby Lewis (who all deserve the attention), nobody seems to remember that the Rangers’ bullpen lost two games outright for them in the post season. There isn’t a reliable closer in the bunch, and that’s not a good thing when you have the Giants trying to hunt you down in the final leg of the game.

That being said, the Giants don’t have a great bullpen either, but they’ve performed much better in the playoffs. Javier Lopez and Brian Wilson’s Beard have been fantastic in the post season, especially against hitters like Ryan Howard. If you’re betting on the odds to win the 2010 World Series, you have to look at the whole team and the Rangers have excessive flaws in closing games.

The bullpen is a big reason that San Francisco got to wear it is because they only way they win is by squatting on tight leads. Especially if Tim Lincecum is willing to serve as a set-up guy.

Why To Bet Texas Rangers

Heavy – and I mean heavy – hitting. The Rangers have averaged 5.3 runs per game through the playoffs, and while they’ve faced big name pitchers from Tampa and New York, they haven’t faced a rotation like the Giants that is absolutely peaking with potential right now. Still, to toss against an order touting Nelson Cruz and Josh Hamilton is downright scary.

Obviously, the reason the Rangers are being favored in the odds to win the World Series is because their starting pitchers have the ability to go the distance if necessary. It’s not just that Wilson, Lee and Lewis can go seven-plus innings either. They are almost just as good in the later innings as they are in the beginning of a game.

Why To Bet The San Francisco Giants

For all intents and purposes, the Giants are more fun to bet on because they shouldn’t be in the 2010 World Series in the first place. They don’t have a single, killer bat at the plate and the drop off after Tim Lincecum is massive in the rotation. But there’s something charming about them. I can’t ignore that and neither should you. Still…

The Pick

…you can say the same thing about the Texas Rangers. Betting on the odds to win the 2010 World Series is all about momentum at this point, and the problem for the Giants is that Texas has just as much if not a bit more. Beating the hapless Braves and routing the Phillies has its merits, but it pales in comparison to the beating Texas gave the Rays and Yankees.

The Rangers will not take the San Francisco Giants lightly and while you can make faint comparisons to how Texas shapes up a lot like the Philadelphia Phillies, the one thing you can’t put down is that the Phillies were virtually lifeless in the NLCS. At the very least, Texas has weathered the storm against the hated Yankees and the punchy Rays.

You can talk about technical skill, measure the athleticism and precision of the fielding or discuss sabermetrics to your heart’s content. Betting on the odds to win the 2010 World Series is simple – Texas has just as much swagger in their step as San Francisco and they’re more talented.

But as I said in my NLCS primer, if you bet on the Giants odds to win the 2010 World Series, you’re going to have just as much fun.

Furious 2010 World Series Prediction – Texas Rangers in Six