in MLB Props
Roids or not, who’s Going to Hit the Most Dingers
by Charles Jay
This category is one that I believe is going to be potentially more difficult to handicap this season than perhaps it has been in the past. That is because we don't really know who is going to be affected by the latest revelations about Alex Rodriguez and his admission that he took performance-enhancing substances, at least during one of his MVP seasons, 2003. I am imagining that there is a certain spirit around the major leagues right now over this kind of thing; we have seen that many high-profile players who have either been caught doing steroids or are strongly suspected of doing them.
Here is a partial list with the MLB odds to hit the most regular season home runs in 2009.
For purposes of as much brevity as possible, we have taken out all the players who are posted at longer than 50/1 odds:
Adam Dunn +2000
Adrian Gonzalez +5000
Albert Pujols +2000
Alex Rodriguez +700
Alfonso Soriano +3000
Carlos Lee +5000
Carlos Pena +5000
Carlos Quentin +2000
David Ortiz +4000
David Wright +5000
Evan Longoria +800
Jay Bruce +5000
Jim Thome +5000
Josh Hamilton +3000
Manny Ramirez +4000
Mark Teixeira +3000
Miguel Cabrera +2500
Prince Fielder +1200
Ryan Braun +1000
Ryan Howard +350
Ryan Ludwick +5000
Any Other +1000
With the A-Rod/A-Fraud/A-Roid controversy comes another issue that is making some players A-Fraid - the fact that out of the 104 players who tested positive in a "confidential" study in '03, Rodriguez is the only one who has been outed, and there is an outcry of sorts for the others to be named. Players have seen that the guys who have worn the black hat and would otherwise have been shoo-ins for Cooperstown, like Mark McGwire, Rafael Palmeiro, Roger Clemens and Barry Bonds, are not getting very much support from the members of the media who have been interviewed over this, and who make the decisions on who is elected to the Hall of Fame. Obviously McGwire is eligible for the Hall and is well shy of the votes needed for induction.
Anyone who takes something illegal at this point has got to understand that sooner or later he stands a good chance of being exposed, and there is going to be no wiggle room at that juncture. A "mea culpa" will not help with the BWAA voters, and denials that are later shown to be hollow will serve to penalize players even worse in the court of public opinion. I think we have seen the effects of some of this already. I mean, Barry Bonds holds the record for most homers in a season with 73. Miguel Cabrera led the American League last year with only 37.
So I guess what I'm saying is that we probably have no idea which home run hitters who may have been juicing themselves up before and really testing the limits will stop now, and how that will affect the home run race. I can guess. For one thing, more players will be in it, because the gap between the biggest sluggers and the others won't be so great. If a player goes on a torrid streak, he can make up ground in a hurry.
That having been said, let's take a look at who might be the best value, relative to the BetUS odds:
ANY OTHER (+1000 at BetUS) -- For reasons in the above paragraph, you almost have to expect that someone will come out of nowhere and be a contender for this, just as Carlos Quentin of the White Sox was last season before he got hurt.
RYAN HOARD (+350 at BetUS) -- Anybody who has hit 153 homers the last three years has to be in the discussion.
PRINCE FIELDER (+1200 at BetUS) -- Prince looks like his estranged father, former Tigers first baseman Cecil Fielder, and he joined him in the 50-homer club in 2006. You get a strong sense that there is nothing artificial building a physique there. Those guys are/were not on steroids. They're just plain big. All Fielder might have to stop taking is milk shakes.
CARLOS QUENTIN (+2000 at BetUS) -- You must respect Quentin here, simply because he was possibly on his way to not only winning the home run title last year, but the American League MVP as well. Some may look upon his 36-homer, 100-RBI season as a fluke, since he had not hit more than 21 homers at any level before. If he is healthy, there is no reason he shouldn’t continue his power surge.
ALBERT PUJOLS (+2000 at BetUS) -- The one thing you know about Pujols is that he is ALWAYS going to hit with power, and he is going to be consistent. Pujols hit 49 homers in 2006; this past off-season he had surgery to repair a nerve problem in his elbow. He is like a modern-day Jimmie Foxx. Unless he demonstrates some reason for a decline, he's got to be a contender here.
ADAM DUNN (+2000 at BetUS) -- Dunn was just signed by the Washington Nationals, who have built what they like to think is a hitter's park. He's hit 40 homers in each of the last three seasons, so he can never be counted out of this race.
JOSH HAMILTON (+3000 at BetUS) -- This comeback kid hit 32 homers last year, and he is in a very good hitter's park. The sky is the limit for a man of his talent.
DAVID WRIGHT (+5000 at BetUS) -- Look, I think that Wright and Tampa Bay's Evan Longoria are going to be fixtures in the All-Star Game for years to come. Longoria is going to be in a lot of home run races, although his park may not be the most conducive to it. I just don't think he should be such a shorter price than Wright, who has hit 63 homers in the last two seasons.
MANNY RAMIREZ (+4000 at BetUS) -- As I am writing this, we still don't know where Manny is going to land, but given his torrid second half for the Dodgers, and the fact that you just KNOW he's going someplace where he is going to put up some numbers, he cannot be counted out.
ALEX RODRIGUEZ (+700 at BetUS) -- Despite the two monster contracts this guy has gotten (from Yankees), A-Rod/A-Fraud/A-Roid has never led any team to a championship. As Joe Torre offers in his new book, Rodriguez is pretty much a "me-first" player, concerned mostly for his own numbers. What that means to you is that this is the player, in light of his admission of steroid use, who is going to go out of his way to hit home runs from beginning to end. Other categories might suffer, but the homers will keep coming.
(Charles Jay goes into his home run trot - figuratively speaking - every day as a contributor to the BetUS Locker Room)
