NASCAR Betting - Chase Begins at New Hampshire but Upset Looms

Race-day: 9/20/2009

Race-time: 1:00 pm EST

There are two different races to watch this Sunday at Loudon in New Hampshire. The first is between the 12 drivers who made The Chase. Terrific NASCAR odds can be found on a few of the drivers in the Top12 to take home the Sprint Cup in 2009.

Winning the Sylvania 300 isn’t necessarily the goal of a lot of the drivers in The Chase. The goal is to finish as well as possible that includes not making a mistake and going for a Top 10 or Top 5 finish instead of the victory. Because of that thinking, some great drivers might pull back and just take it easy if the driver in the lead isn’t even in The Chase.

That’s probably exactly what will happen on Sunday. With Kyle Busch out of The Chase, the Sylvania 300 has lost some luster. Busch is the regular season race wins leader with four tying Sprint Cup point’s leader Mark Martin. Bad luck has kept him out of The Chase, but gamblers shouldn’t let that fool them into thinking that Busch doesn’t want to win.

Instead of looking at the first four time straight winner of NASCAR’s Championship, Jimmie Johnson has a chance to make history, NASCAR could be looking at a huge upsetter in Kyle Busch who will be out to not only win at New Hampshire but at every other track NASCAR travels to during The Chase.

Kyle is a seriously good play in the sportsbook at +900 to win the Sylvania 300.

Hendrick Boys and Montoya Look Strong

Jeff Gordon has finished in the Top 3 at New Hampshire the last few times he’s raced their. His average finish of 11.8 and 3 victories makes him a definite race car betting possibility in the Sylvania 300. At odds of +500, Gordon is a favorite in the sportsbook but he’s a favorite with a chance.

Mark Martin at +800 and the race favorite, Jimmie Johnson at +400, both figure to give Hendrick a serious shot in the first race of The Chase. Martin has never won at New Hampshire, but 2009 has proven to be a special year for Martin and the Sprint Cup point’s leader has what it takes to get to the front in the Sylvania 300 and stay there.

Jimmie has 2 victories and an average finish of 9.9 at New Hampshire. That makes him a tough wager not to make although he hasn’t shown the same fire entering the stretch as he did in 2008.

Then there’s Juan Pablo Montoya. Montoya is the guy that Mark Martin believes has a chance to win The Chase in 2009. The odds on Montoya to win the Sprint Cup are 20 to 1 in the BetUS online sportsbook. Those are good odds, but what about his chances to win the Sylvania 300 this Sunday? At the mirrored odds of +2000, Montoya should be taken seriously as the long shot play at New Hampshire. He’s coming off of a third place finish and he has the ability to turn on the aggression if need be.

Where’s Tony?

Smoke was fantastic for most of 2009. There’s no doubt that he could take home the Sprint Cup, but most NASCAR watchers are discounting his chances at New Hampshire on Sunday. The reason is that Team Tony hasn’t been very good lately.