in NASCAR Articles

Sunday, when the green flag waves for the Ford 400 there will be five drivers mathematically alive to win the Cup title. Jimmie Johnson, Matt Kenseth, Kevin Harvick, rookie Denny Hamlin, and Dale Earnhardt Jr.

The Nextel Cup championship isn't Johnson's to win – it's his to lose. As we head into the final race of the chase Johnson owns a stout 63 point lead over second place Kenseth.

Last week, Johnson finished second at Phoenix International Raceway for his fifth straight finish of second or better this year. A crash in last year's finale left Jimmie 40th and snapped a streak of three consecutive top-10 finishes at Homestead. His average finishing spot here is 15.6.

This week, the formula for Johnson is simple: Finish 12th or better. If he can stay out of trouble, avoid wrecks or mechanical failure and be competitive but not overly aggressive, he'll take home his first Nextel Cup championship trophy.

If Johnson does win the championship, it would end a frustrating string over the last four seasons that has seen Johnson finish runner-up twice and in fifth place the other two times.

If Johnson has a mishap or can't get the job done, Kenseth is poised to pounce. However, Kenseth has never led a lap at Homestead in six starts, but he's finished on the lead lap in each of his last two races there including a third-place effort in 2005.

What does all this mean to bettors? Generally speaking, Johnson will most likely run a very conservative race. He won't press the issue going for the lead. Remember: All he needs is a 12th place finish or better to raise the Cup.

On the other hand, Kenseth, Harvick, Hamlin, and Earnhardt Jr. will need to stay up front in hopes that Johnson slips up. A recommendation is to take any or all of the before mentioned four drivers over Johnson in your head-to-head selections.

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Robbie Maddux is a freelance columnist and regular contributor to the BetUS.com Locker room.