in NASCAR Articles

After its first-ever detour outside of the United States (in Mexico), the Nextel Cup drivers find themselves in America’s playground – Las Vegas, Nevada. Frustrating efforts to read who will win the race this weekend is the fact that the turns are newly banked, so there is truly no history to use to forecast which racers can be successful here under true race conditions.

Still, having won this race each of the last two years, it would be foolish to ignore Jimmie Johnson’s chances to win in Las Vegas this season. The only other win for Chevy in the nine-year history of the race was by Johnson’s teammate, Jeff Gordon, in 2001.

Johnson answered a disastrous Daytona 500 finish (39th) by finishing third in California (he started in 23rd position). For his career, Johnson has averaged a seventh-place finish in Las Vegas. A similar finish next weekend would show that the positive momentum he experienced in California was not a mistake.

Like Johnson, Matt Kenseth, who pushed Kevin Harvick to his last-lap Daytona 500 win three weeks ago, can claim two consecutive race wins in Las Vegas (2003 and 2004). His 27th place finish at Daytona is misleading since, again, he was right behind the race-winner on the final lap before getting caught up in the wild crash-filled finish. In Week Two, Kenseth proved in California that his team is one to watch this year. Given his record at Las Vegas, Kenseth has to be considered a favorite this weekend.

For Cup Leader, Mark Martin, losing his first career win at Daytona by inches to Harvick at the checkered flag was a heart-breaker. However, he proved his mettle the next weekend by posting a fifth-place finish in California. Martin has four career Top-5 finishes at Las Vegas, including a win in its inaugural run in 1998. Martin’s average finish here is 12th.

The two Jeffs in 2nd and 3rd place in the Nextel Cup race, Burton and Gordon, respectively, like their chances this weekend, too. Burton won this race in ’99 and ’00 and has finished in the Top-10’s six different times at the track. Gordon won the race in ’01 and has four career Top-5’s here, including 5th and 4th the last two years, respectively.

Kevin Harvick, who sits fourth in the Nextel Cup standings, has not done well in Vegas. With the exception of a fifth place finish in ’05, he has failed to finish higher than 11th (’06) in his five career attempts.

David Ragan, who currently sits fifth in the Cup standings after a 5th-place finish at Daytona and a 16th-place finish in California, seems a long-shot for a victory in Las Vegas. A new driver on a newly-banked track seems an unlikely combination for a win.

Las Vegas Motor Speedway

March 11, 2007

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