NASCAR Odds on The Auto Club 500
by Charles Jay
While fans are still having arguments about how badly NASCAR handled the pothole debacle at Daytona this past weekend, the drivers move on to their next stop, which is clear across the country, in Fontana, CA, for the Auto Club 500.
Jamie McMurray, who came on in the final two laps in his #1 Bass Pro Shops Chevrolet to win the Daytona 500, is obviously #1 in the Sprint Cup standings at this point. But close observers of NASCAR would point out that he was very much in his element in that race. McMurray has won more at restrictor-plate tracks in the last three-plus seasons than any other NASCAR driver.
Odds To Win Auto Club 500
(Only those listed 40/1 or less)
Brian Vickers +2500
Carl Edwards +1200
Clint Bowyer +2500
Dale Earnhardt Jr +2000
Denny Hamlin +1200
Greg Biffle +1200
Jamie McMurray +4000
Jeff Burton +2500
Jeff Gordon +800
Jimmie Johnson +450
Juan Pablo Montoya +1500
Kasey Kahne +1500
Kevin Harvick +2500
Kurt Busch +1200
Kyle Busch +800
Mark Martin +800
Matt Kenseth +1000
Tony Stewart +1200
Restrictor plates, which severely reduce horsepower, are used at Daytona and Talladega (where McMurray won the Amp Energy 500 last November), but are not in use at Fontana. McMurray is not one of the listed favorites for this race, clocking in at +4000 in the BetUS NASCAR betting odds.
Interestingly, McMurray said he never knew anything about the pothole between Turns 1 and 2 that required two different delays to fill. "Honestly I thought it was a piece of rubber,” he said. “The way the track was shaded, you couldn’t tell there was a hole there.”
Dale Earnhardt Jr., who also loves restrictor-plate racing, came on strong in the late going, moving from 10th place to a final finish of second in the last couple of laps. That's even a little more impressive when you consider he was 15th with six laps remaining. Junior, who is +2000 to win the Auto Club 500, came in a disappointing 25th in last season's Sprint Cup standings, and he has not won since the LifeLock 400 in Michigan in June 2008.
Kevin Harvick, who is currently +2500 for Sunday's race, was the leader until the final few laps at Daytona, but finished in seventh place. Because of bonus points, he is fifth in the Sprint Cup standings. Harvick has had a lot of good finishes, and indeed was in the Top 20 last year, but he has not won a race since he captured Daytona in 2007.
David Reutimann, who came in a surprising fifth at Daytona, is listed at +6000 to win in Fontana. He won last year's Coca-Cola 600 and just didn't miss the Chase cut by very much.
Sam Hornish Jr., the former Indy 500 champion, is still trying to get his legs under him in NASCAR; he finished 37th at Daytona and is +8000 for Sunday.
Scott Speed, who has one of the great names for any race car driver (tied with former NASCAR driver Lake Speed, who is no relation, as far as we can tell) i also at +8000.
Matt Kenseth finished in 14th position last year and missed the Chase for the Cup. With an eighth-place effort at Daytona, he did not want to risk a tough start that would put him behind the eight-ball. Consequently, his team, Roush Fenway Racing, has removed Drew Blickensderfer as crew chief and replaced him with Todd Parrott (who was with Dale Jarrett, the 1999 champion). After wins in the first two races of last season, it kind of went downhill for Blickensderfer, who has been moved to research and development by the team.
The timing of that decision was not necessarily curious, but it is interesting. That's because expectations are understandably high for Kenseth this weekend. He has won the Auto Club 500 in three of the last four years, and has almost always excelled at the Fontana track. He is currently listed at +1000 to make it four out of five this weekend, and if the switch in crew chiefs is a positive thing, rather than a distraction, that could make him a value pick.
However, even if his past form holds, he's facing a major obstacle, because Jimmie Johnson, the four-time defending Sprint Cup champion, has also been a demon at Fontana, winning the Sharp AQUOS 500 in 2007 and the re-named Pepsi 500 (which is now a 400) in each of the last two years. He led last year's Auto Club 500 for the first 43 laps but then faded to ninth place.
Johnson hit the pothole and had to come off the track, registering at 35th-place in the Daytona standings, but that need not be cause for panic, because he has bombed at Daytona in each of the last three seasons, yet managed to win the Cup in the end. Most would expect a bounceback effort here, and Johnson is the favorite at +450 in the BetUS odds.
There will plenty of eyes on the Auto Club Speedway track on Saturday as well. That's because Danica Patrick, a NASCAR newcomer, will get her second start in the Nationwide Series when she competes in the Stater Brothers 300.
Two weeks ago, at the Lucas Oil Slick Mist 200, part of the ARCA RE/MAX Series, which was held at Daytona, Patrick came from the back of the pack to finish sixth, offering an indication that she may be a force to be reckoned with. Last week, also at Daytona, she got caught up in an accident and finished 35th in the Camping World 300.
Here are the top twelve in the BetUS odds to win the 2010 Sprint Cup title, with their point total in parentheses:
Jimmie Johnson +300 (58)
Jeff Gordon +600 (90)
Carl Edwards +800 (138)
Mark Martin +800 (132)
Tony Stewart +800 (97)
Denny Hamlin +1000 (117)
Kyle Busch +1000 (126)
Juan Pablo Montoya +1200 (139)
Dale Earnhardt Jr. +1500 (175)
Kurt Busch +1500 (99)
Greg Biffle +1800 (170)
Matt Kenseth +1800 (142)
* Jamie McMurray, the current Sprint Cup points leader (190) is listed at +8000
