What Do the Stats Tell Us About the Brickyard 400?
by Charles Jay
NASCAR bettors know that often, the numbers tell the story with some clarity, and this week we're looking for what the stats will tell us about the Brickyard 400, and who is most likely to make a big run on Sunday when the green flag goes up at 1 PM ET.
Some drivers race better on some tracks than others, and therefore it is useful to see who feels more comfortable and who is more accomplished at this legendary oval The pre-race betting favorite is Jimmie Johnson at +350, and certainly he likes it at the Indianapolis Motor Speedway, having won twice in a row there.
You can see the race live on Sunday at ESPN.
NASCAR Betting - Brickyard 400
Sunday, July 25 - 1 PM ET (ESPN)
Indianapolis Motor Speedway
Betting Odds - To Win Brickyard 400
(Top 20 - Alphabetical by first name)
- Carl Edwards +1800
- Clint Bowyer +2000
- Dale Earnhardt Jr. +4000
- David Reutimannn +3000
- Denny Hamlin +800
- Greg Biffle +2500
- Jamie McMurray +3000
- Jeff Burton +1500
- Jeff Gordon +800
- Jimmie Johnson +350
- Joey Logano +3500
- Juan Pablo Montoya +800
- Kasey Kahne +2000
- Kevin Harvick +1200
- Kurt Busch +1200
- Kyle Busch +800
- Mark Martin +3000
- Matt Kenseth +2500
- Ryan Newman +4000
- Tony Stewart +1000
Here are some NASCAR wagering stats for some of the leading contenders:
* Greg Biffle (+2500 in the betting for Sunday) has enjoyed some consistency in his years at Indy. Biffle has the third best average running position of all the drivers in Sunday's field, and he has raced 78.5% at the Brickyard among the top 15 positions.
* Kyle Busch (+800 in the betting odds), who will also be racing on Saturday at O'Reilly Raceway Park in Indianapolis in the Nationwide race, has had one top-five finish at the Brickyard.
He has not done his best running there, and is just tenth best in terms of driver rating at this venue (92.8).
That would seem out of character for the #6 driver in the Sprint Cup standings.
* Jeff Gordon (+800 in the Brickyard 400 betting) may be value-priced compared to others, based on what he has been able to accomplish at Indy.
Gordon has four wins there, and has finished in the top ten 13 times. even though he's run the fastest lap only 21 times in his Brickyard career, he's got an average finish of 8.6, which means he's a good candidate to get into the top three.
* Kevin Harvick (a +1200 bet to win Sunday) has a Brickyard 400 win under his belt (2003) and won that one from the pole position. But his overall stats there are not great; his driver rating is 91.9, which makes him 11th best in this field, and his average running position of 14.8 is just 13th best.
Again, he seems vulnerable, but the guy has surprised us all season long. Remember - he is still the Sprint Cup points leader. That means he has been the most consistent driver.
* Kasey Kahne (at +2000 in the betting odds) is trying to make a mad dash toward a Chase spot, and his average start of 6.2 at Indy is the best among all these drivers and something to keep in mind for Saturday morning qualifying.
* Denny Hamlin (+800 in the betting) needs a big effort to grab some momentum back, and if he can maintain his average green flag speed at Indy, which is third-fastest among the drivers in this race (169.528 mph) he may go a long way toward doing that.
* Juan Pablo Montoya (a +800 bet to win Sunday) is given a lot of respect, because not only did he win the Indy 500 at this track, he also started and finished second in his initial NASCAR effort there. he is 21st in the points, which means he could make up some ground here.
* Tony Stewart (+1000 in the betting odds) obviously loves this track, and why shouldn't he? Stewart won the Brickyard 400 in 2005 and 2007, and has seven top tens at Indy.
His average running position of 8.4 is the best in this field, as is his 84.5% of laps in the top 15 and his average green flag speed of 169.854 miles an hour. Needless to say, this Indy 500 veteran is a major contender.
* Jeff Burton (+1500 in the betting odds) has enjoyed one top-five finish in the Brickyard 400, as well as a pole that he won in 2006.
His average running position at Indy has been strong (12.7); in fact, it is fifth best among the drivers who will be lining up on Sunday.
* Mark Martin (+3000 in the betting) won last year's pole, and he has been in the top five a total of six times. if he has a clear ride it's a good bet that he'll be near the front, with an average running position of 9.2 that is second-best among these drivers.
His driver rating of 104.8 is behind only Toy Stewart and his teammate, the #48. With 656 laps led at the Brickyard in his career, you can't count this veteran out.
Last but certainly not least...
* Jimmie Johnson (the +350 betting favorite for Sunday) has won at the Brickyard in three of the last four years, and his 145.882 miles an hour last year was the fourth highest in the brief history of this race.
His driver rating of 104.9 is the second-best of Sunday’s starters, but for someone who is only one away from equaling Jeff Gordon's record of four Brickyard wins, his average finishing position of 17.9 is kind of disappointing.
That means if he doesn't win, he may have problems.
Bet the Brickyard 400 right now at the home of NASCAR betting!
