in NASCAR Betting Trends

Kahne the leader

Hello, Atlanta.

Kasey Kahne is more than happy to be heading to the Big Peach this Sunday. He’s the favorite at +350 to win the Bass Pro Shops MBNA 500, and no wonder: Kahne is going for the season sweep at Atlanta Motor Speedway (AMS), a feat that Carl Edwards pulled off just last year. Kahne has also been dominant on the other 1.5-mile tracks on the Nextel Cup circuit. Four of Kahne’s six victories this season came on such surfaces.

But will it be too little, too late for NASCAR’s emerging heartthrob? Kahne is currently in eighth place in the drivers’ standings, 99 points behind leader Matt Kenseth (+1000 for Sunday) with just three races left to go in the Chase for the Cup after Atlanta. That leaves Kahne as a +900 underdog on the Cup futures market; Kenseth is the favorite at +170, although the “field” of Jeff Burton and Denny Hamlin is getting even shorter odds at +150.

There is good reason to support Kenseth in his Chase quest – the leader going into Atlanta has won the Cup in each of the past two seasons. But winning Sunday’s race is another matter. Kenseth’s best-ever finish at AMS was fourth, which he last did in 2003. He was 13th at the Golden Corral 500 in March. Consistent finishes like those can be expected for the rest of the season.

Jimmie Johnson, on the other hand, needs a victory. He’s second on the odds list for Sunday at +550, and he’s also making a charge on the futures market at +250 to win the Cup. The first bet might be wiser; Johnson has torched AMS, winning this week’s event back in 2004 and finishing sixth or higher in five of his last six appearances there. But Johnson still has 41 points to make up on Kenseth, and Kevin Harvick is sandwiched in between the two drivers in the Cup standings. Harvick has been a disaster at AMS since winning his debut there in 2001; as a result, he’s just +1250 for Sunday and +500 to take the championship.

Outside of the Chase, there is one compelling long shot for Atlanta: Bobby Labonte (+2800). He leads all drivers on the Cup circuit with six career victories at AMS, including as recently as 2003, and he has 12 Top-5 results in 27 attempts. Team Petty has done an excellent job getting the No. 43 Dodge up to speed after making Paul Andrews the crew chief. Their Top-5 finishes at each of the last two races this season were no fluke – a win at Atlanta is also within reason.