NASCAR The Final Chase
by Shawn Sillinger
The Final Chase
The House of Stewart is alive and well.
Despite failing to qualify for the Chase for the Nextel Cup, defending champion Tony Stewart is the favorite (+500) to take the checkered flag at Sunday’s Ford 400 – the final race of the 2006 season. Stewart has won three of the last seven Cup races; he now has five victories to his credit this year. He’d be in fourth place in the drivers’ standings instead of 11th if the pre-Chase format were still in effect.
The pride (and positive results) Stewart has demonstrated down the stretch must be contagious. When the futures market opened for the Ford 400, Stewart was the co-favorite alongside Jimmie Johnson, the current Chase leader with a daunting 63-point lead over Matt Kenseth. But Johnson has since fallen to +700. He only needs to finish in 12th place or better to clinch his first Nextel Cup, so it’s a given that Johnson will not be driving particularly aggressively this Sunday.
Kenseth, on the other hand, needs to go all-out if he wants to seriously challenge Johnson for the championship. But he’s only carrying odds of +1000 into Homestead-Miami Speedway, the site of this week’s race. This has been a tough year for Roush Racing; after placing all five of its drivers in the 2005 Chase, Roush managed just two representatives this time (the soon-to-depart Mark Martin being the other). That frustration is evident on the futures market, where Roush’s Greg Biffle saw his odds drop from +600 at the open to +900. Biffle won the last two runnings of the Ford 400 – a track record that would normally push a driver to the top of the odds list.
Roush got an early start on its “silly season” last week, switching crew chief Bob Osborne from Jamie McMurray back to his previous driver, Carl Edwards. That move has already paid dividends: Edwards finished fifth at the Checker Auto Parts 500, and is priced at +900 to win this Sunday. McMurray is far behind at +2500.
Aside from Kenseth, there are three other drivers with a remote chance of overtaking Johnson for the title. Kevin Harvick (+1200) and rookie Denny Hamlin (+1500) are each 90 points behind the leader, while Dale Earnhardt Jr. (+700) is staring at a 115-point deficit. None of these three has ever won at Homestead, and Earnhardt has yet to crack the Top 10 after six previous appearances. But don’t expect any of these three to pack it in early – you never know what fate may befall Johnson this Sunday.
