NASCAR is back: Will Jr. Break Through in the Daytona 500?

After qualifying ended on February 6th, all of the talk surrounding this Sunday’s Daytona 500 settled on a single driver. Dale Earnhardt Jr., who hasn’t had the kind of success with Hendrick Motorsports that a lot of racing fans thought he would when he switched teams a couple of years ago, will start in position 2 next to Mark Martin, his fellow Hendrick driver, in the Daytona 500.

This is a watershed year for NASCAR. Due to the economy, rains washing out races, and just, plain, badly planned television broadcasts, NASCAR took a serious hit both in the eye of the public and their own wallet. One thing that could help them regain a bit of the stature that they lost would be if their most popular driver, Dale Jr., won the Daytona 500.

Does Dale have any shot? Of course, he does. But, based on the odds in the NASCAR sportsbook, +700, Jr. just isn’t a very good bet. He and his crew chief haven’t proven the ability to correctly identify issues during a race in recent years. Without that ability, Earnhardt Jr. is most likely destined to fail…again.

Let’s take a look inside the 2010 Daytona 500!

NASCAR: Daytona 500

Daytona International Speedway
Daytona Beach, FL
Race-day: 2/14/2010
Race-time: 1:00 pm EST

Best Bet: Mark Martin +1200

Martin wants this badly. He’s never won at Dayton even though he’s finished in the Top 5 nine times and in the Top 10 seventeen times. 5 out of the last 7 Daytona 500’s have been won by a Chevrolet, but the past 2 Daytona 500’s have been won bye a Dodge and a Ford. No matter. Martin has the pole and, believe me, he’s going to use it to his advantage. Expect Martin to take off early and try to get separation from the pack. He could do it as well because there’s no way that Jr.’s car is close to being as fast Martin’s.

The key in this race is “handling” the track since the cars were so loose in the Budweiser Shoot-Out. I envision Martin trying to get separation and then, towards the end of what could be a 30 lap run, working on maintaining that lead. Then again, his car could get loose on him. That’s why he’s 12 to 1, right? I have to take the nice odds on the pole sitter.

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Don’t Forget About: Kyle Busch +700 and Denny Hamlin +800

Both Joe Gibbs’ drivers have a serious shot in to win the Daytona 500 on Sunday. Both guys finished in the Top 10 in the Budweiser Shoot-Out last Saturday, proving that their cars could handle the track, and both guys have terrific pit crews behind them.

In Hamlin’s case, his Achilles injury doesn’t appear to be a factor yet. I expect Hamlin, who has never had success at Daytona, to be ultra-aggressive in this. Hamlin did suffer through a crash during a practice session earlier this week, but I think he and his crew have things under control.

I expect that Busch, who has a victory at Daytona, to dial it down a bit, to keep his emotions from getting the best of him. If Kyle can do that for most of this year, he could challenge for the Sprint Cup Championship.