NASCAR Odds to Win: Can Jimmie Bounce Back in the Auto Club 500?

The best driver on the NASCAR circuit, 4 time Sprint Cup Champion Jimmie Johnson, didn’t start out 2010 the way he probably wanted to. Sure, Jimmie won the Gatorade Duel 1 on February 11th in a back-up car, but 3 days later, on February 14th, Jimmie ended up finishing 35th in the Daytona 500.

Who cares about the Gatorade Duels? The Daytona 500 was the big prize last weekend. The race, won by Jamie McMurray, will be remembered more for the pot hole that caused a 144 minute delay then it will for McMurray’s victory. In fact, Team Johnson firmly believes that the pot hole is what caused the issue with his car’s rear axle that led to the 35th place finish.

JJ and his crew have a chance to make amends to NASCAR betting fans that dropped dough on him to win the Daytona 500 when he and his fellow drivers descend upon Fontana, CA for the Auto Club 500.

NASCAR: Auto Club 500

Auto Club Speedway

Date: 2/21/2010
Time: 3:00 pm EST
Place: Fontana, CA

Best Bet: Matt Kenseth +1000

Kenseth ended up 8th in last week’s Daytona 500. It was actually a really good run for Matt who ended 2009 on a sour note after getting off to a super hot start. Kenseth not only won the Auto Club 500 last year but he also won it in 2006 and 2007. That means that Matt has taken home the Auto Club 500 trophy in 3 out of the last 4 runnings. Could he do it again? At better than expected NASCAR odds, yep, I think he could.

Best Non-Bet: Tony Stewart +1200

Smoke is listed as the third choice in the NASCAR sportsbook afer JJ, who’s going off at +450, and a slew of known drivers going off at +800. Even though at what looks to be good odds, 12 to 1, Stewart isn’t worth a bet to win the Auto Club 500. He’s never won at the track before and his average finish is 15.2. Yes, Tony should be a force this year but it won’t start this Sunday in the Auto Club 500.

Best Bet at +800 or Less: Jimmie Johnson +450

Jimmie’s the chalk and usually I hate putting money on the chalk but Jimmie’s odds, 4 ½ to 1, are better to me than Mark Martin’s at 8 to 1. Why? Because Jimmie has won 4 times at the Auto Club Speedway and has an average finish of 5.8. Martin’s only won at the track once. Gordon’s only won at the track 3 times. Kyle Busch only has one victory at the track. JJ is the bet if gamblers don’t mind accepting low odds.

Best Long Shot: Kevin Harvick +2500

The negatives regarding Harvick is that he’s never won a race at the Auto Club Speedway and that his average finish on the track is 18.7. The positive is that he won the Budweiser Shoot-Out last week, finished 2nd to Jimmie Johnson in the Gatorade Duel 1, and finished 7th in the Daytona 500. What it means is that Harvick’s car is doing just fine and that his crew is giving him the right direction. He could win this race at very, very nice odds.

Other Drives to Consider

Carl Edwards +1200 - - He won the race in 2008 and averages a 6.6 finish on the track.

Kasey Kahne +1500 - - Kasey has a victory over the track and won the Gatorade Duel 2 last week.