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NBA 2009 Season Preview - Western Conference Rankings
by Tim Furious
The most important thing to realize about the Western Conference futures is that everyone is graded against the Lakers. The oddsmakers saying that the Thunder are +10000 to win isn’t saying that this team is bad, they’re just saying that they probably aren’t going to beat the Spurs or Lakers.
The West is a top-heavy Conference. Unlike the Eastern Conference, the West pretty much has three amazing teams, and then has 10 more teams that could make the playoffs or bust. Then they have the Kings and Grizzlies. Yeesh.
1. Los Angeles Lakers (-110 To Win Western Conference)
The Lakers were banking on Ron Artest being a potential distraction. It’s just that I’m not so sure if the locker room was ready for Lamar Odom to become a prima donna. Two of L.A’s top dogs are now eligible distractions, and the rest of the Western Conference has to hope that that the Lakers implode from the inside out. Honestly, that’s the only reason the Lakers would ever lose the Western Conference.
2. San Antonio Spurs (+450 To Win Western Conference)
I love the Spurs through and through, but Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobli’s health terrifies the betting crap out of me. The Spurs were decimated against the betting line at home, and I’m not sure if Richard Jefferson is the kick in the pants they need to get over the hump after going 17-23-1 ATS at home. But if Duncan is healthy, this is perhaps the only team that can hold a candle to the Lakers in terms of talent.
3. Denver Nuggets (+600 To Win Western Conference)
How did Chauncey Billups react to J.R. Smith’s playoff explosion and subsequent off-court issues? He flew to Las Vegas to mentor the youngster. The Nuggets smashed the betting line, going 45-36-1 ATS last season, and needed a real leader to unify the talent of Kenyon Martin, The Birdman, Nene, Smith and Carmelo Anthony. They’ve got it now, and if any team is going to play with a chip on its shoulder this year, it’s the team that narrowly lost to the Lakers in the Western Conference Championships.
4. New Orleans Hornets (+2500)
The most undersold trade in the offseason was Charlotte practically giving the Hornets center Emeka Okafor. Any team that has a definitive inside-outside presence at the point and center position has a chance to win, and the Hornets have the best point-guards (Chris Paul) with one of the best, young centers in the league. The rest of the team is a crapshoot, but I love their chances of being the outside shot this coming season.
5. Portland Trailblazers (+1000)
The Blazers’ main man is Brandon Roy, who is perhaps the best clutch shooter behind Dwyane Wade or Kobe Bryant. But this team still revolves around Greg Oden. Whenever Oden’s on the floor, the Blazers watch Oden as if he’s about to explode on the court. Instead, they watch him miss open field-goals and blow his defensive assignments. This guy has all the natural talent in the world, but unless he can realize it, the Blazers are stuck in Western Conference purgatory.
6. Utah Jazz (+1000)
There’s one thing I just don’t like about the Jazz – they don’t feel like a team. They play like one (i.e. they pass to each other), but the trade talk around Carlos Boozer, the weird treatment of Andrei Kirilenko and the lack of championships in Jerry Sloan’s cupboard make me seem that this team is missing an identity. Something’s really off about this team.
7. Houston Rockets (+1800)
They didn’t even try to keep Ron Artest, who was the unspoken leader of this team. Instead they let him saunter over to the rival Lakers and the Rockets signed Trevor Ariza, a guy who nobody thinks can take “the step”. That’s bad news for a team that will eventually lose Tracy McGrady, and replaced Yao Ming with…what do you mean they didn’t sign any credible centers?! No, Luis Scola can’t play center all season! He’s 6-foot-9!!! This isn’t high school basketball!!!
8. Oklahoma City Thunder (+10000)
Nobody thinks that the Thunder will upgrade from last year, where they went just 23-59 SU. But their betting investors know how good they are after they went 45-36-1 ATS. Kevin Durant is a top-5 player in the NBA (maybe top -3) and his supporting cast is only getting better. The West is a crapshoot with only three or four really good teams in the mix. You’re telling me that the Thunder aren’t that good when they have one of the best players in the entire league on their roster?
9. Dallas Mavericks (+1400)
On paper the Mavericks are pretty much exactly what they were last year, except with Shawn Marion. That says a lot about a team that only escaped the first round because the Spurs had two injured starters. Whenever a team’s biggest upgrade is a 6-foot-7 swingman who has averaged 15-7 his entire career and is playing for this fourth team in three years, you have to wonder why nobody bothered to hang on to him in the first place. That’s who the ringer for the Mavs is, and they weren’t that good to begin with.
10. Phoenix Suns (+4000)
The Suns were fortunate to retain the services of Steve Nash through 2010 in a rebuilding phase. Too bad their betting investors won’t be able to rely on them.
11. Los Angeles Clippers (+8000)
Outside of the Thunder, not starting roster looks more dangerous on paper as an underdog killer. Blake Griffin has rejuvenated and motivated Baron Davis, Marcus Camby and Chris Kaman. With Eric Gordon and Al Thornton getting better and Ricky Davis coming off the bench, the Clippers could be the biggest turnaround team in the league.
12. Minnesota Timberwolves (+10000)
Al Jefferson comes back, and Kevin Love breaks his hand. Great. Toss in the Ricky Rubio disaster, a rookie head coach and the overspending for Ramon Sessions and you have a veritable disaster in the making.
13. Golden State Warriors (+10000)
Steven Jackson is supposed to be holding this team together as its captain. Instead he’s ripping it apart with his whining.
14. Memphis Grizzlies (+10000)
Rudy Gay is one of the most underappreciated talents in the league, a trend that’s likely to continue when they drafted a college kid second overall who is tagged as “needs to improve…everything”. That’s Hasheem Thabeet in a nutshell.
15. Sacramento Kings (+15000)
Does anything about this team excite anyone? They won 17-games last year, covered the spread lost to the spread 44 times.
