NBA Weekend Preview - Punching your Ticket

The first round is still going on, and there’s plenty of value to be had before the field is whittled down to four teams in each conference. The Atlanta Hawks on Friday night, with Game 7 (if necessary) slated for Sunday.

Atlanta at Miami: Game 6 – Friday, 8 PM ET (Hawks lead 3-2)

The Heat need this one to stay alive, and that’s why they’re 5-point favorites for Game 6 of their East quarterfinal series with the Hawks on Friday night.

Both teams come into the matchup dealing with some injury issues, the most pressing of which is to Dwyane Wade. Dealing with a bad back all series, Wade banged his head on the hardwood following a collision in Atlanta’s 106-91 win as 6-point home chalk in Game 5 on Wednesday night. He’s expected to play despite the pair of injuries, and judging by his 29 points last time out Wade appears able to weather the pain.

Jermaine O’Neal is probable with an ankle injury for the Heat, who are without starting small forward Jamario Moon (groin) for the duration of the playoffs. Matters are almost as dire in the Hawks’ dressing room, although they’re not dealing with an injury to their star player. Al Horford is day-to-day with a mild ankle sprain he suffered on Wednesday night, but is slated to be in the starting lineup for Game 6. The same can’t be said for swingman Marvin Williams, who is listed as doubtful because of a lingering wrist injury.

Maurice Evans is likely to start in Williams’ place, and he’ll draw the assignment on Wade if that’s the case.  D-Wade has been Miami’s only consistent performer in the series, as the younger members of the rotation are still getting used to the intensity that only comes with the postseason.

The total is set at 182, and it is headed for the under if we’re going by the trends. Atlanta and Miami have played below the listed number in seven of nine meetings dating back to the regular season, while the Heat are 2-6 O/U in their last eight games as the favorite.

Dallas at Denver: Game 1 – Sunday, 3:30 PM ET

If the Mavericks are going to make some noise against the Nuggets in their West semifinal series, they’ll have to do something they couldn’t do all season: Take a game from Denver.

Dallas won’t have to win outright in the opener with the Nuggets as 5.5-point home chalk, but keeping it close is something it’ll have to do to satisfy bettors. The Mavs were able to do that in the regular season despite dropping all four matchups, with the Nuggets winning by an average margin of 4.25 points.

The gap was even narrower at Pepsi Center, where Denver went 1-1 ATS (2-0 SU) against Dallas. The Nuggets won both games at home by three points or less, indicating the opener – and the entire series – could go down to the wire.

The Mavericks upended the Manu Ginobili-less San Antonio Spurs in five games in the first round, covering in all four of their victories on the scoreboard. Dallas (+6) defeated San Antonio 106-93 in Game 5 on Tuesday night, as Dirk Nowitzki went for 31 points and nine rebounds in the series finale.