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NBA Overtimes – How they relate to Over and Under Trends

Bookmark and Share by Sasha Best

Like many of you NBA bettors here at the BetUS Sportsbook, I was watching the Cavs/Blazers game last night. The score at the end of the first quarter was 19-12, which, I assumed, basically guaranteed the under (the betting line was 187). Of course, then the game went to overtime, and the over ended up barely squeaking by. The final score was 97-92, for a total of 189.

It seems like there has been a spate of overtime games lately, here is a list of NBA games that went into overtime in just the last week:

  • Mar 19th Cavs vs. Blazers
  • Mar 18th Heat vs. Celtics and Pistons vs. Rockets (double OT)
  • Mar 14th Jazz vs. Heat (triple OT)
  • Mar 13th Pistons vs. Raptors and Cavs vs. Kings

That’s a total of 9 overtime periods in a week of NBA action. That got me thinking about whether certain teams are more prone to play the extra period, maybe because they play to the level of their competition, or just because they’re an average-ish team. The idea is that a team that goes to an extra frame more often is a good over bet, and vice versa.

So, here they are, your most likely to go to overtime teams:

Miami Heat (38-28 O/U, 4-1 O/U L5, 9 OTs) – The co-winner for the most overtime periods is the Heat, and their long term and short term O/U trends add weight to the idea of continuing to bet over. Take the OVER tonight when the Heat take on the Nets.

Chicago Bulls (30-36-1 O/U, 2-3 O/U L5, 9 OTs) – The Bulls go to OT a lot but they’ve been underperforming offensively all year. A tendency to go to OT is just a factor in the over, and the O/U trend does not give any confirmation.

Detroit Pistons (30-36-1 O/U, 4-1 O/U LS, 8 OTs) – The Pistons offense and tempo are back in gear with Iverson sidelined, and the over/under trend in their last five games shows it. Add that to their tendency to go to OT and check out the OVER in tonight’s game against the Clippers.

Sacramento Kings (34-34 O/U, 2-3 O/U L5, 8 OTs) – The Kings play the Knicks tonight at MSG, but don’t expect this one to go to OT. The Kings are a mess and the Knicks badly need this home win.

And now, the teams that have played the least OT:

Philadelphia 76ers (29-35-2 O/U, 3-2 O/U L5, 1 OT) – Philadelphia’s woeful offense and slow pace has made them one of the best under picks all year, and their lack of OT reinforces that trend. Take the UNDER when they visit Golden State tonight.

New Orleans Hornets (29-35-3 O/U, 1-4 O/U L5, 1 OT) – New Orleans is another consistent performer on under bets in the BetUS Sportsbook. The trend has continued recently, and their lack of extra periods won’t do anything to slow those trends. Take the UNDER tonight at home against Memphis.

Washington Wizards (33-34-2 O/U, 3-2 O/U L5, 1 OT) – The Wiz don’t go to overtime much, but their trend recently has been towards the over (5-2 in last 7 game O/U). The overtime factor probably isn’t big enough to swing things, but check out the under when the Wiz are playing another bottom-feeder.

Atlanta Hawks (30-37-2 O/U, 1-4 O/U L5, 1 OT) – Yet another consistently good under team finds itself on this list. NBA betting enthusiasts should pursue this trend Mar. 21st when the Hawks take on Lebron’s Cavs.

Analysis: Our original idea that teams that go to OT a lot should be good overs, and teams that don’t go to OT a lot should be good unders, is partially confirmed by the data above. There’s only a weak correlation between the teams with a lot of overtimes and teams with good over records, but there’s a very strong trend linking teams with good under records to the teams that don’t play a lot of OT.

Top Picks:

  • Memphis at New Orleans UNDER 190.5
  • Philadelphia at Golden State UNDER 226.5