The Harris-less Nets - NJ Nets at NY Knicks
by Sasha Best
Fading the Harris-less Nets
Although they’ve been a poor team the whole year (28-39 SU), New Jersey has performed well against the spread (34-32-1 ATS), especially on the road (19-15 ATS) and as an underdog (26-21 ATS).
That’s why the Nets’ recent trends are something good NBA bettors should definitely pay some attention to. Over their last 5 games which was a West Coast road trip, the Nets are 0-4-1 ATS. They were an underdog in all but one of those road games, normally the Nets’ are bread and butter ATS. They’re also 1-6 SU in their last seven. When Devin Harris went down last Sunday against the Clippers, things in Jersey went from bad to hellish. The word last night is that Harris “will be out indefinitely with a sprained left shoulder and strained deltoid muscle.” An MRI was negative on broken bones but Devin will be out “at least a week and possibly longer.” I’d put my money on “possibly longer.”
With Harris out, the Nets lose their leader in scoring (22.6 per), assists (7.0 per) and steals (1.7 per). Their backcourt is extremely thin with Magic castoff Keyon Dooling the only real point guard (and hardly a pure one at that) left. Who’s going to back him up? The rest of the backcourt is Bobby Simmons, Maurice Ager and Chris Douglas-Roberts … yes, trouble in East Rutherford. In Harris’ first game out, Douglas-Roberts posted a -14 in just 12 mins.
Harris is worth so much more than just his numbers. Vince Carter’s having a real bounce-back year because he’s shouldering so much less of the offensive load. Harris’ superb drive and kick game matches up with Carter’s slashing/3pt bombing game perfectly. With Harris out, New Jersey really loses its whole offensive identity, not to mention it’s best on the ball defender in the backcourt.
Rookie standout Brook Lopez is going suffer with Harris out as well. Lopez has definitely impressed with how developed his post game is, but his greatest strength is his athleticism for a man his size, a strength that Harris can really maximize when he’s on the floor. With Harris out in Denver on Monday, Lopez managed only 9pts on 6 FG attempts.
In Harris’ first game out, the oddsmakers tried to adjust and made NJ a whopping 13.5pt underdog in Denver. The result? Jersey goes down by 25. Without Harris, the Nets are on the level of a NBA betting lines start to reflect that reality or Harris comes back from his injury, I’d take a long look at betting against Jersey.
The first chance is tonight in New York. The Knicks are a 7.5pt favorite, but they’ve been playing well, going 3-1 SU in their last four and posting an impressive 4-0-1 ATS record in their last five, the exact opposite of what Jersey’s done.
