NBA Free Picks – Houston Rockets vs. Miami Heat (and what’s the deal with T-Mac)

Two teams that are supposed to be strong bets because of the oddsmakers’ inability to properly gauge them have been caught in the crosshairs by the books. The Miami Heat have struggled to five straight losses while going 1-4 ATS as Dwyane Wade is suddenly running out of miracles to save the team. The Houston Rockets, meanwhile, might have a wonder in waiting via trade.

Tracy McGrady, the league’s highest paid player at $23.3 million, has been living in exile this entire season. The Rockets’ brass has a very strict “no f’n buyouts” policy meaning that they’d rather pay McGrady then see him destroy the usually brilliant chemistry of the team. Yet a team which has become a potential destination for Dwyane Wade has emerged to potentially give the Rockets some relief.

The Bulls have made no secret about being major players in the 2010 free agent frenzy this summer, and there are wild assumptions (usually pimped by yours truly) that the Bulls will land Bosh and pair him up with either Wade or LeBron. In order to do so, the Bulls have been shopping Kirk Hinrich and Tyrus Thomas like crazy and while a deal seemed to be in place with several teams, nothing has come through. And nothing will with the Rockets possibly dangling Tracy McGrady in a 3-for-1 trade for Hinrich, Thomas and the ridiculous contract of John Salmons.

The attractiveness for the Bulls is ten-fold. McGrady’s monster deal would come off the books as of July 1st, giving the Bulls all sorts of cash to throw at the big three this summer. The trade would give the Rockets much needed depth off the bench, plus some size, and a stimulus plan to get the post-McGrady era in Houston off to a rousing start.

And Houston needs any sort of help it can get. Just 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games, and a disappointing 2-7 ATS on the road, the Rockets need a huge boost to be competitive in the playoffs. No player on the Rockets is averaging above 20.0 points, and none of the players are putting up double digit averages in rebounds nor assists. Playing with five strong players is one thing, but without a legitimate superstar in Houston, the Rockets are suffering. Adding even more depth to the team would be a strange move, but it would also solidify the unique team principles employed by the Rockets. No stars, just winners.

Tuesday, February 9th --- AmericanAirlines Arena, Miami --- 7:30pm EST
: Miami -5 (191.5)

Miami has gone in a completely different direction by deploying Wade as a one man army. The results have been mired in disaster. While averaging 26.8 points per game this season, followed by Beasley with 15.8 points, Wade has simply not had the help from his teammates that he’s so desperately needed. The Heat are winless in five games and just 1-4 ATS over that streak with just a 11-13-1 ATS record at home.

While the Rockets don’t match up that well to Miami, I don’t have any faith in the Heat right now. Questions surrounding the Rockets don’t involve any of their key players, and while Miami’s championship hopes go the way of the dinosaurs, fans and the franchise are terrified of losing Wade and getting nothing in return. Those kind of distractions make Miami a bet you don’t want to make right now and until they’ve put together a strong streak of wins against the basketball betting line, they’re off limits until further notice.