in NBA Free Picks

Dallas Mavericks (- 12)

Tip-off: 8:30 pm est.

This is a huge game for the Dallas Mavericks. The Mavs have lost three games in a row straight-up and against the BetUS spread. In their last 10 games Dallas has gone 5 and 5 against the BetUS spread but those 5 wins against the spread occurred in 5 straight games. Overall, the Mavs are 15-17-4 against the spread at home. And, yes, of course, they are without Dirk Nowitzki.

The Los Angeles Clippers must be jealous of the Seattle Supersonics. How else do we explain this team’s desire to lose? They’ve dropped 7 games straight-up. Against the BetUS spread the Clippers are 2 and 8 in their last 10 games. This team is horrible. Here are some other trends.

The Los Angeles Clippers are 5 and 1 against the spread in their last 6 games on a Tuesday night.

The Dallas Mavericks are 9 and 2 against the spread in their last 10 games playing on 1 day of rest.

The Under is 11 and 2 in the Los Angeles Clippers last 13 games versus a team with a winning straight-up record.

The Under is 4 and 0 in the Dallas Mavericks’ last four games as the favorite.

Actually, all things considered, the Mavs couldn’t have hoped for a better opponent to test their Dirk-less offense out on than the Los Angeles Clippers. I expect Avery Johnson to try numerous line-ups in this game in order to find that magical combination that would make every Maverick fan forget all about Dirk.

I don’t think he will succeed, but the Clippers are so awful that the illusion of success could definitely appear some time during this game. The Mavs could win this game by 12 or they could lose this game outright. There’s no way to tell. Nowitzki has been such a huge part of their offense for so long - - there’s no telling how the Mavs will respond without him on the court.

Which leads me to the only wager in this game - - the BetUS over/under. The BetUS over/under is 190.5 which equates to about 96 points for each team. I don’t think that will happen. I do believe that Avery Johnson will change his line-up enough in this game to keep the Mavs at roughly 88 points. Jason Kidd is terrific in the half-court. Half-court games provide a lot of defense and limited offense.

The Clippers might want to run in this game, but the Clippers are just awful. Their chances of hitting 90 points against a Dallas team bent on discovering a new way to win games isn’t that good.

Johnson will emphasize defense in this game. Without Dirk, Dallas has to slow the game down. They have no shot in the playoffs against the Chris Paul led New Orleans Hornets, the Steve Nash led Phoenix Suns, the Kobe Bryant led Los Angeles Lakers, or the Baron Davis led Golden State Warriors if they try and speed things up.

I expect to see a lot of defense in this game. A lot of clock management. That means under.

The BetUS Dallas Mavericks game is 190.5.

I like the under.

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