NBA Free Pick Denver vs New Orleans

The Nuggets are starting to make a move in the West. Winners of four games in a row, the Nuggets are only a game behind the red-hot Dallas Mavericks and 3.5 games behind the Los Angeles Lakers, who have been slumping. Maybe the best win out of the four was a 119-90 romp over Oklahoma City where they shot better than 50% from the floor. Denver is shooting 47.2% for the season and is the NBA's second-highest scoring team, chalking up 107.7 points a game.

Denver Nuggets (43-21 SU, 29-30-5 ATS) at New Orleans Hornets (32-33 SU, 30-34-1 ATS)
Friday, March 12 - 8 PM ET
: DENVER -4.5, Total 210.5

Here are some of the NBA pro basketball trends for the Denver Nuggets:

• DEN has won four of its last five games SU
• DEN has played six of its last nine games OVER the total
• DEN has played four of its last five road games UNDER the total

Here are some of the NBA pro basketball trends for the New Orleans Hornets:

• NO has lost five of its last six games SU
• NO is 0-5 ATS in its last five games
• NO has played four of its last six games OVER the total
• NO has covered four of its last 14 home games
• NO has won four of its last six home games SU
• NO has played four of its last six home games OVER the total

New Orleans is trailing the Memphis Grizzlies and Houston Rockets in the Western Conference pecking order, and the Hornets are six games behind the Portland Trail Blazers, who are holding onto the eighth West playoff spot at the moment. They've got a 21-11 home record, but they're only 14-18 ATS in the NBA betting odds at the New Orleans Arena, and they are underachieving against the number, dropping their last five pointspread decisions.

Here are some of the NBA pro basketball betting trends as they relate to this matchup:

• DEN has won and covered six of the last eight meetings
• Four of the last five meetings have gone UNDER the total
• NO has won four of the last six meetings SU as the home team
• The last five meetings in New Orleans have gone UNDER the total
• DEN has had the shooting edge in five of the last eight meetings
• DEN has had the rebounding edge in each of the last five meetings
• DEN has made more three-pointers in four of the last five meetings

Chris Paul played well in the two games these teams met each other this season, scoring 56 points. He's out with injury now, and his replacement, Darren Collison, though a rookie, has a lot of energy, can score, and is quick enough to keep Chauncey Billups plenty busy. Sure, Collison is a work in progress, and Billups might take him to school on occasion, but when we say "progress" take note that Collison is making an awful lot of it. The guy who occasionally spells Billups, rookie Ty Lawson, could match Collison on quickness and then some, but he's quite possibly out of this game with an injured shoulder.

The Nuggets have left a lot to be desired in the role of a road favorite, covering just five of 17 times in that role. Since they are, for all practical purposes, pout of the playoff race, it's nice how the Hornets are salvaging something with new blood, as Collison is generally joined in the backcourt by another rookie, Marcus Thornton. As far as the veteran on this crew, David West has to assume more leadership with Peja Stojakovic out, but he doesn't have to be worried about being defended by Kenyon Martin, who is out for the Nuggets with a knee injury, possibly to return in a couple of weeks.