in NBA Free Picks

Detroit Pistons (59-23)

Monday, May 5th --- Palace of Auburn Hills, Detroit --- 7:00pm EST

Series: Det 1-0

NBA Betting Line: Detroit -6 (184.5)

They say the opposable thumb is what separates us from the animals. You know, aside from driving cars, wearing pants andplaying video games. That thumb, however, may be what separates the Orlando Magic from the Eastern Conference Championship and a quick playoff exit. If Saturday’s post-game interview told us anything, it was that Dwight Howard knows that his thumb is a lot worse than he’s letting on. You could tell by the look on his face.

But a thumb injury is a lot like turf toe in football – it just doesn’t sound like a big deal. Certainly, when the monster in question is the force of nature known as Dwight Howard, you’d want to downplay the injury. However, just like turf toe, a damaged thumb is a bigger deal than you’d imagine. Dwight attempted to pull down an uncontested defensive board, and instead threw the ball out of bounds clutching his thumb as he came down. It’s without question that his 20.8 points and 16.5 boards will wind down if his thumb is not at one-hundred percent.

The Magic are 4-7-2 ATS in their last 13 games against Detroit, pushing the OVER in the last 7 games. With a tight spread, it’s also disheartening 2-11 SU in their last 13 games against Detroit.

The Pistons are also firing in every which way possible, going 5-1 ATS in the last 6 games and 5-1 SU over the same span. They’ve gone 13-2 SU in their last 15 games at home and are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games in the Palace. All are terrible signs if you’re a Magic betting investor.

What’s worse is that even when Dwight Howard was healthy, Theo Ratliff was giving him fits. Theo Freaking Ratliff! Granted, this was easily Howard’s worst performance in the playoffs, and he’s due to rebound as long as that hand is in working order.

I’m not counting the Magic out at all, not by a long shot. Until this series swings back to Orlando, however, it’s impossible to properly measure the Magic right now. Jameer Nelson played valiantly against Chauncey, but Mr. Big Shot took him to town in the second half.

Anything Hedo and Rashard try to do is immediately off-set by the steady production of Prince and Rip Hamilton. Stay steady with the punishing Pistons as they try to shut down the monster in the making.

NBA Free Pick: Pistons -6 (OVER)

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