Celtics vs. Magic Game 6 Player Props – Howard and Rondo

The Magic are in disarray. Dwight Howard openly questioned and criticized his coach, Stan Van Gundy after yet another late game collapse in Game 5. The Magic were up 14 in the 4th quarter, before letting Stephon Marbury and co. light them up. That’s right, I said Stephon Marbury. Howard got one touch in the final 6 minutes of the game, and he was none too happy about it. When you start to lose the confidence of your star player, your job is on the line, but Gundy has to be more worried about winning and extending the series than placating his all-star center.

Dwight Howard Total Points and Blocked Shots

The Line: Dwight Howard Total Points and Blocked Shots Moneyline

Over 24½ Points+Blocked Shots -120

Under 24½ Points+Blocked Shots -110

The Numbers:

Series: 18.2 blocks + points per game

Playoffs: 22.5 blocks + points per game

Regular Season: 23.5 blocks + points per game

Vs. Celtics (regular season): 20.8 blocks + points per game

Home (regular season): 23.8 blocks + points per game

Analysis: This would be an easy under pick if it weren’t for Howard’s comments after Game 5. Just look at the stats above. The question now is whether Van Gundy will pander to the media and fan pressure and force feed Howard in the post. I don’t think he will. The Van Gundys are pretty damn stubborn and I think Stan would rather lose his job then bow to external pressure. Plus, he’s done a great job with the team over the year (who would have predicted 59 wins?), and he’ll find another job easily if he loses this one. Don’t fall into a trap here, take the under and play the odds.

Pick: Dwight Howard UNDER 24½ Points+Blocked Shots

Rajon Rondo Total Points

The Line: Rajon Rondo Total Points Moneyline

Over 15½ Points Ev

Under 15½ Points -130

The Numbers:

Series: 14.2ppg

Playoffs: 17.3ppg

Regular Season: 11.9ppg

Vs. Orlando (regular season): 11.3ppg

Away (regular season): 11.1ppg

Analysis: The season is on the line for the Magic, and although they haven’t looked like it this postseason, the Magic were the best defensive team in the Association during the regular season. Their efficiency has slipped in the postseason from 98.9 to 101.1 points allowed per 100 possessions. But they have at least one game of superb defense left in them. Defense always starts on the ball and the ball is usually in Rondo’s oversized hands for the Celtics. Alston is a very underrated on the ball defender, and he finally got his shot going in Game 6. Rondo will still try to roam the passing lanes and play help D, but now he’ll have to expend more energy getting back to Alston. That will mean less penetration on offense, and Rondo’s jumper is very unreliable. Plus, Rondo scores significantly less on the road then at home. Although -130 may seem like a steep price to pay, the combination of the Magic defense and Alston’s resurgent offense should keep Rondo’s scoring well under 16 points.

Pick: Rajon Rondo UNDER 15½ Points