Celtics vs. Magic Player Props – Dwight Howard and Paul Pierce

Game 4 was a classic, with Glen “Big Baby” Davis nailing a clutch jumper to win it for the Celtics. The series is now tied at two games apiece, with Game 5 going tonight in sportsbook, and I’ve chosen to focus on player props. I’ll give you the line, the key numbers you need to know, and some analysis before I give you my picks. Good luck, and enjoy the game tonight, I know I will.

Dwight Howard Total Points

The Line: Rot. Dwight Howard Total Points Moneyline

537 Over 20½ Points -115

538 Under 20½ Points -115

The Numbers:

Series: 17.0ppg

Playoffs: 20.9ppg

Regular Season: 20.6ppg

Vs. Boston (regular season): 16.8ppg

Away (regular season): 20.1ppg

Analysis: Don’t get me wrong, Dwight is a beast down low, and he can score. However, he relies on strength and quickness, rather than a developed set of post moves in order to do so. The problem for him, and the Magic, is that if he’s up against a strong and quick post defender, his ability to score is greatly limited. Kendrick Perkins, the starting center for the Celtics, is exactly that, strong and quick. He’s been pushing Howard off the low block and forcing him to take tough hook shots coming across the lane, and Howard’s not making them. He’ll still get dunks in transition and off of offensive rebounds, but it’s hard to get 21+ points that way, especially in what figures to be a defensive-minded game.

Pick: Dwight Howard UNDER 20½ Points

Paul Pierce Total Points and Assists

The Line: Rot. Paul Pierce Total Points and Assists Moneyline

548 Over 28 Points+Assists -115

549 Under 28 Points+Assists -115

The Numbers:

Series: 23.3 points+assists per game

Playoffs: 24.5 points+assists per game

Regular Season: 24.1 points+assists per game

Vs. Orlando (regular season): 26.1 points+assists per game

Home (regular season): 24.6 points+assists per game

Analysis: Paul Pierce finally had a breakout game in Game 4, and it looks like the oddsmakers are counting on a repeat performance, because this line just doesn’t make a lot of sense. Look at Pierce’s points+assists averages above; he’s no where near 28 in the series, in the playoffs, or in the regular season. And there’s another key reason to like the under here. Courtney Lee should be re-inserted in the starting lineup tonight, as he gave the Magic some good minutes in Game 4. He’ll be Pierce’s primary defender, and he’s a major upgrade over J.J. Redick, especially on that end of the floor.

Pick: Paul Pierce UNDER 28 Points+Assists