Filling It Up - Carmelo and Kobe Player Props

Filling It Up: Carmelo and Kobe Player Props

The Western Conference Finals start tonight with the Nuggets in L.A. taking on the Lakers. This series features two of the best pure scorers in the league: Carmelo Anthony and Kobe Bryant. The BetUS sportsbook is offering player props on both players, including total points props. I’ll give you the line, the important stats, and some extra analysis to go along with my picks.

Carmelo Anthony Total Points

The Line: Rot. Carmelo Anthony Total Points Moneyline
2033 Over 25½ Points -120
2034 Under 25½ Points -110

The Numbers:

Playoffs: 27.0ppg
Regular Season: 22.8ppg
Vs. Lakers (regular season): 14.5ppg
Away (regular season): 23.5ppg

Analysis: Carmelo really struggled against the Lakers’ defense this year. In four meetings he’s averaged only 14.5 points. It’s not an issue of shots or minutes, he just hasn’t been able to convert against the defense of Ariza and Odom. He went 5-15, 5-19, 4-17 and 8-16 in the four games. The Lakers are clearly looking to make other players beat them. Although Carmelo’s been playing extremely well of late, it would be silly to ignore such a meaningful trend. When you add in that the under is getting better odds, it’s a no-brainer.

Pick: Carmelo Anthony UNDER 25½ Points

Kobe Bryant Total Points

The Line: Rot. Kobe Bryant Total Points Moneyline
2045 Over 30½ Points -115
2046 Under 30½ Points -115

The Numbers:

Playoffs: 27.4ppg
Regular Season: 26.8ppg
Vs. Denver (regular season): 31.0ppg
Home (regular season): 25.1ppg

Analysis: Both of these teams play at a very quick pace, so scoring numbers should be pretty good. Kobe’s had some incredible scoring performances against the Nuggets so far this year: he scored 33 in only 33 minutes on Nov. 1st, 29 in 30 minutes on Nov. 21st and 33 in 25 minutes on Apr. 9th. He’ll play many more minutes tonight, and Denver will continue to struggle to contain him. The issue is that Dahntay Jones, an excellent defender, will likely be able to play only very limited minutes. There will be a lot of scoring tonight and in this series, and Denver will need to play J.R. Smith for heavy minutes in order to keep up. That means a lot of points for Kobe, because J.R. just doesn’t have the defensive abilities necessary to slow him. George Karl’s Nuggets are disinclined to double too aggressively, as they don’t like to let the Lakers’ role players get going.

Pick: Kobe Bryant OVER 30½ Points