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Game 6 Prop Picks - Boston Celtics vs. Orlando Magic

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Looking at some props for Game 6 of the Eastern Conference semi-final series between the Boston Celtics and Orlando Magic, which you can find at BetUS by clicking the "Show All Props" link under the game odds:

TOTAL 3 PT SHOTS MADE IN THE GAME

Over 14 3 Pt Shots -110

Under 14 3 Pt Shots -120

Okay, there have been five games, and the three-point totals are as follows:

GAME 1: Celtics 8, Magic 9, Total = 17

GAME 2: Celtics 9, Magic 8, Total = 17

GAME 3: Celtics 5, Magic 9, Total = 14

GAME 4: Celtics 1, Magic 5, Total = 6

GAME 5: Celtics 5, Magic 6, Total = 11

In Game 5, these teams combined to shoot just 27.5% from beyond the arc, and it just appears if things are getting worse and worse for the Magic in its perimeter game. We mention Orlando in particular because the Magic averaged ten three-pointers per game during the regular season. They got just 1-for-9 between Rashard Davis and Hedo Turkoglu in Game 5, and that is unacceptable. However, at the same time they recognize that Dwight Howard has to get more of an opportunity to score on the inside. While it is true that the aforementioned Orlando forwards, or Ray Allen, or even Paul Pierce, can light it up from the outside, we see that the flow of this series has gravitated toward mixing it up inside.

JAY'S PLAY: UNDER 14 (-120) **

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TEAM LEADING AFTER 1ST QTR WINS GAME

Yes -180

No +150

In the first three games, the team that led after the first quarter won the game. In the last two games, this has not been the case, as Boston came back from deficits to win both contests. The Celtics know they can come back, and three of these games have been close.

JAY'S PLAY: NO (+150) *

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RAJON RONDO TOTAL POINTS

Over 15½ Points -115

Under 15½ Points -115

Anyone who reads my stuff on a regular basis knows that I love Rajon Rondo's game, especially as a guy who can get in there and grab rebounds. There's simply no small point guard in the NBA like him, and he gives the Celtics a "Big Four" (at least when Kevin Garnett is healthy). But guess what? In the last seven games, Rondo has topped 15 points only once. This is not tragic news, because he can do so many other things and the Celtics know they can win games without him putting up big scoring numbers.

JAY'S PLAY: UNDER 15.5 (-115) **

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GLEN DAVIS TOTAL POINTS AND REBOUNDS

Over 21½ Points+Rebounds -110

Under 21½ Points+Rebounds -120

Davis has averaged only 5.2 rebounds per game during this series, but I think the strategy for the Celtics is that they want Davis to get points up front to take some of the pressure off of Kendrick Perkins, so Perkins can concentrate on the role of defender against Dwight Howard. He was nearly silenced in Game 3, scoring just seven points, but has bounced back with 21 and 22 points in the last two games. Plus, when you look at Orlando's finesse-oriented forwards, they don't match up all that well if Davis wants to get physical.

JAY'S PLAY: OVER 21.5 (-110) **

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DWIGHT HOWARD TOTAL POINTS AND BLOCKED SHOTS

Over 24½ Points+Blocked Shots -115

Under 24½ Points+Blocked Shots -115

Howard has averaged a little over two blocked shots per game, which is almost one blocked shot below his season's average. During the season he scored 20.6 points per game, but during this series he has averaged only 16 ppg. He had only ten shots in Game 5, and had taken just 57 shots in the series thus far, but when you look at it, that is just one shot per game less than he took during the regular season. Here was his quote after Game 5: “I don’t think you are going to win a lot of games when your post player only gets 10 shots … You’ve got a dominant player. Let him be dominant.” Well, yes, and we would expect that the Magic is going to feed him more. That may result in three or four points above his playoff average, but the truth is, Perkins has done an outstanding defensive job against him.

JAY'S PLAY: UNDER 24.5 (-115) **