Kobe Bryant and Dwight Howard Player Props - Finals Game 1

It feels like it’s been a month since the semis ended, but the Orlando Magic a hefty six point road underdog here at the BetUS sportsbook. There are a lot of potential keys for Game 1 and the series, but it all starts with the superstars, so we’ll take a look at the prop bets BetUS is offering on Kobe Bryant and Dwight Howard. I’ll give you the current line, some of the key numbers you need to know and my analysis. Then I’ll give you my free pick.

Dwight Howard Total Points Prop

The Line: Rot. Dwight Howard Total Points Moneyline

4041 Over 22½ Points -125

4042 Under 22½ Points -105

The Numbers:

• 2009 Playoffs: 21.7ppg

• Regular Season: 20.6ppg

• Vs. L.A. (reg. season): 21.5ppg

Analysis:

There are two basic defensive strategies that opponents of the Magic can employ. You can double team Dwight Howard immediately and force his teammates to score, or you can try to play Howard straight up, which allows him to score but limits his teammates. Phil Jackson and the Lakers will go with the latter strategy for a couple reasons. First, Jackson doesn’t like to double team, and the Magic have especially deadly three point shooters waiting for a pass out of the post. Second, the Lakers have big bodies (and fouls to give) with Andrew Bynum and D.J. Mbenga. I expect the Lakers to try to make Dwight beat them at the foul line. It’s the correct strategy, but it should mean an easy over on this prop. The Lakers played it that way in the regular season, and Dwight scored 21.5ppg in only 35mpg. Prorated to the 40 minutes he’ll probably see tonight, that’s 24.5ppg. The only danger here is early foul trouble for Howard.

Pick: Dwight Howard OVER 22½ Points

Kobe Bryant Total Points Prop

The Line: Rot. Kobe Bryant Total Points Moneyline

4071 Over 32 Points -115

4072 Under 32 Points -115

The Numbers:

• 2009 Playoffs: 29.6ppg

• Regular Season: 26.8ppg

• Vs. Orlando (reg. season): 34.5

Analysis:

There are reasons to like both the over and the under here. 32 points is a lot, and Kobe has had some effective games this postseason playing the role of playmaker rather than scorer. Also, because it’s Game 1 and in L.A., Kobe will want to establish his teammates, and they’re more likely to step it up and reward him for that trust. On the other hand, Stan Van Gundy doesn’t like to let those other guys get going, preferring to let Kobe try to do it alone, much like Phil Jackson’s strategy with Dwight Howard. You saw it during the regular season, as Kobe was able to score 34.5ppg, and yet the Lakers dropped both matchups. If Kobe is not consistently double teamed and it’s a close game (which I think it will be), Kobe is going to have to shoulder the scoring load. And he’s more than capable of doing it.

Pick: Kobe Bryant OVER 32 Points