Mavericks vs. Nuggets Game 4 Prop Picks

Looking at some props for Game 4 of the Western Conference semi-final series between the Dallas Mavericks and Denver Nuggets, which you can find at BetUS by clikcing the "Show All Props" link under the game NBA odds:

FIRST TO SCORE 20 POINTS

Nuggets -105
Mavericks -125

I tend to look at the underdog in plays like this and contemplate whether there is a real compelling reason to go with the favorite. In this case, I don't think there's enough. Dallas, to me, is the team that is shell-shocked, going from a hopeful situation in the series to one that is hopeless. This is not a "get tough" team normally, which is one of its failings, and something that even the hiring of Rick Carlisle wasn't going to remedy.

JAY'S PLAY: NUGGETS (-105) *

----------------------------------------

TEAM LEADING AFTER 1ST QTR WINS GAME

Yes -180
No +150

Here, I think we can get some value. Is Dallas perfectly capable of leading this game at the end of the first quarter? Are the Mavs capable of coming out with some emotion, facing elimination, and put together a strong first 12 minutes? Sure. Is Denver perfectly capable of breaking down the Mavs and winning the game despite that? Of course. There are so many twists and turns that can go on in an NBA betting game; so many changes of momentum. Furthermore, when you have the kind of bench strength Denver has, which in terms of role players is superior to that of Dallas, it can easily have a "delayed" effect. In other words, the second unit can really begin to make gains in the second quarter, and those are gains that can pretty much serve to turn things around.

JAY'S PLAY: NO (+150) **

-----------------------------------------

KENYON MARTIN TOTAL POINTS AND REBOUNDS

Over 16½ Points+Rebounds -115
Under 16½ Points+Rebounds -115

I'm sure you have heard the juicy bit of gossip that constituted the "other" side story from Saturday's game. Mark Cuban, undoubtedly frustrated by the fact that his team was wronged in the final six or seven seconds of the game, became somewhat angry afterward, and was shouting some very derogatory remarks about the Nuggets. At the time he was reportedly near the tunnel where the teams go into the locker room, and that is where Kenyon Martin's mother was standing. "That includes your son," he said to her.

Now, if that was MY mother he was talking to, Cuban would have wound up embedded in the scoreboard, and NOT voluntarily. I can only imagine how Martin feels. Do you think he's not going to come out with fire in his eyes?

JAY'S PLAY: OVER 16.5 (-115) **

------------------------------------------------

DIRK NOWITZKI TOTAL POINTS

Over 28 Points -125
Under 28 Points -105

I've got to say this about Dirk Nowitzki - I know a lot of people in the media regard him as "soft," but I don’t think that's the case at all. Sure, he is not the guy who is going to provide muscle on the inside; while he will get his share of boards, and sometimes more than that, he is not what anyone would classify as an intimidator. But by the same token, he has endured a lot of rough stuff, double-teaming and harassment because the focus of the defense is on him. All he's done under these conditions is go 32-for-61 from the field, which is higher than his regular season shooting percentage, and score 32 points a game. It is not his fault that his teammates, for the most part, can't get the job done. As far as I am concerned, the Nuggets do not have a defensive answer that will shut down Nowitzki, and that's really saying something when you consider they have the likes of Nene Hilario, Kenyon Martin and Chris Andersen. The best they can do is rough him up and hassle him, but he is going to get his points.

JAY'S PLAY: OVER 28 (-125) ***