NBA All Star Weewend: Odds to win the 3 point shootout

In handicapping an event of this nature, it’s hard to look at a long-term history and make definitive conclusions. All one can do is exercise a reasonable amount of logic.

NBA All-Star Weekend 3-Point Shooting Contest

Saturday, February 13th – 8:30 PM ET
American Airlines Center, Dallas

Contestants:

Paul Pierce (+450) - Boston Celtics Forward - Second 3-point shootout
Danilo Gallinari (+350) - New York Knicks Forward - First 3-point shootout
Channing Frye (+500) - Phoenix Suns Forward/Center - First 3-point shootout
Stephen Curry (+285) - Golden State Warriors Guard - First 3-point shootout
Chauncey Billups (+325) - Denver Nuggets Guard - Third 3-point shootout
Daequan Cook (+300) - Miami Heat Guard - Defending Champion

Paul Pierce missed portions of the Boston Celtics’ pre-All-Star break stretch with an injury, and he’s slated to play in Sunday’s All-Star Game, so it’s hard to imagine the 2008 NBA Finals MVP claiming this long-distance shootout. He might win a round, but a 3-point championship is a big ask for this nicked-up forward.

Danilo Gallinari, coming from Italy, figures to be awed by this occasion in Texas. The only two foreign-born players to win this event in the past decade were Dirk Nowitzki – a bona fide superstar – and veteran sniper Peja Stojakovic, then with the Sacramento Kings during that franchise’s best years. Gallinari will be hard-pressed to handle the attention and pressure of this made-for-TV spectacle. It’s reasonable to assume that an American will feel a greater natural comfort level in the home of the Dallas Mavericks.

Channing Frye, as a late addition to this event, is something of a darkhorse contender. It’s quite rare that a post player enters this event, but perhaps a nothing-to-lose mentality will enable Frye to shoot freely and confidently. From a mental standpoint, Frye is an attractive pick. However, the fact that a big man will have to repeatedly shoot 3-pointers is something that will work against this member of the Phoenix Suns.

Stephen Curry – as college basketball fans know – is a fantastic pure shooter, and his recent 36-point game just before the All-Star break showed NBA player Del Curry.

Chauncey Billups is a gifted 3-point marksman, but he’s recently struggled with an injury that limited his overall effectiveness in the week before the All-Star break. The Denver guard can’t be considered a primary favorite in this shooting showcase.

Daequan Cook, as the defending champion, naturally stands a good chance of repeating. After all, Jason Kapono won this 3-point contest in 2007 and 2008. Cook can become another back-to-back victor on All-Star Weekend.

Outlook & Pick

The two favorites are Curry and Cook, by an appreciable margin. The newness of the All-Star scene will probably get to the Golden State rookie, so the verdict here is that Daequan Cook will do this year what Jason Kapono did in 2008: repeat as the NBA’s 3-Point Shooting Contest champion.

NBA Basketball Pick: Daequan Cook over Stephen Curry in the final round

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