in NBA Props
NBA Futures Betting – Handicapping the Assists Race
by Charles Jay
If you have a lot of assists, does that necessarily mean you are an unselfish player? Not really. It just means you have the ball in your hands a lot. There are players throughout the league who are known as hogs but who have respectable assist figures because they dominate the ball for their team. Stephon Marbury, for example, has always had decent assist numbers, at least when he was a starter, but that doesn't mean he didn't always look for his shot first and worry about teammates later.
When you think about it, though, there have been very few teams who have ever won an NBA title with a point guard that was primarily a scorer. Food for thought.
With that in mind, we'll run down the field as it is posted at BetUS Sportsbook:
BetUS NBA Basketball Futures Odds
To Lead NBA in Assists
Chris Paul +110
Steve Nash +225
Deron Williams +400
Jason Kidd +800
Baron Davis +850
Jose Calderon +1200
Allen Iverson +1200
Andre Miller +1500
Raymond Felton +1800
Rajon Rondo +2000
Chauncey Billups +2000
Earl Watson +2000
Lebron James +2600
Dwayne Wade +2500
TJ Ford +3500
Kobe Bryant +3000
Tony Parker +3000
Chris Duhon +4000
Rafer Alston +5000
Jameer Nelson +4000
Mike Bibby +6000
Devin Harris +5000
OJ Mayo +6000
Stephen Jackson +8000
Derrick Rose +10000
Monta Ellis +6000
Steve Blake +10000
Vince Carter +10000
Sebastien Telfair +12500
Jarett Jack +20000
Just to give you a little background, here are the leaders from last year:
Chris Paul - 11.2
Deron Williams - 10.0
Steve Nash - 7.8
LeBron James - 7.6
Jose Calderon - 7.0
Tracy McGrady - 6.8
Jason Kidd - 6.8
Rajon Rondo - 6.6
T.J. Ford - 6.6
Tony Parker - 6.1
It's kind of remarkable that people like LeBron and Tracy McGrady are in this list, but refer to what I said above - they've got the ball - A LOT - at their positions and pretty much control what happens with it. I would say LeBron is a little more willing to give it up for a teammate than McGrady. But I doubt either of them could elevate their figures to the point where they would lead the league. Remember, there's a gap of over three and a half assists per game between James and Chris Paul.
PAUL (+110 at BetUS) is not priced right for us. And I'm not sure NASH (+225 at BetUS) is either, especially when you consider how far behind he was last year, his advanced age and the fact that Phoenix will be slowing things down this year, thus reducing possessions.
DERON WILLIAMS would seem like a solid play at +400, and I don't think you'd necessarily be putting your money to bad use there. In Jerry Sloan's offense he is always going to have a lot of assists.
But we are looking for someone with more upside; someone who can make a breakthrough to the top and still give us some value.
That person is JOSE CALDERON (+1200 at BetUS). Calderon averaged only 23.9 minutes per contest (about half a game) and still managed to post seven assists a game. That projects to 14.1 assists on a nightly basis, which led the NBA last year. His assist-to-turnover ratio was at 5.83, which put him and Paul (6.14) head and shoulders above anyone in the league. Now that T.J. Ford, who he had shared duties with most of the time, has gone off to Indiana, Calderon has the ball all to himself, and more than a couple of guys to hand it off to. He showed what he could do when Ford went down with injury, averaging 8.8 assists in 48 games as a starter. He would be my choice.
But hey, don't count out FORD (+3500 at BetUS), who himself averaged 12.8 assists per 48 minutes, has a pass-first mentality (he has to, since he's not much of a shooter), and now finds himself on an Indiana club that plays a very up-tempo game, which means more possessions and more opportunities.
And finally, DEVIN HARRIS (+5000 at BetUS) will be New Jersey's starting point guard from the beginning, and the Nets are going to be employing a lot of dribble-drive stuff that Harris says is very much to his liking. We'll see.....
