NBA Playoff Picture - Western Conference vs. The Lakers

With most teams having played around 80% of their schedule, NBA odds quoted are as of today, March 17th, and are subject to change.

Spurs +450 – It’s an odd-numbered year, so this should be a lock, right? Not quite. The Spurs big three are another year older, which worries me more from an injury standpoint than a quality of play standpoint. And their new key role players: Bonner, Mason and Hill are completely untested in the playoffs. If Bonner and Mason tighten up a little with the pressure on, San Antonio’s revitalized offense won’t look so potent. With their “D” slipping, San An’s got little margin for error.

Record vs LAL: 1-2. The one win was Jan. 14th at home by one point. In that game the Spurs had to shoot 57% from the field to win. The Spurs are getting considerably less good of a price than some other teams that I think have almost an equal chance.

Jazz +900 – The Jazz have been decimated by injuries all year but are finally getting healthy, and at the perfect time. They’re a great offensive team and the Lakers will have to really focus on the defensive end to beat them and defensive focus has been the Lakers’ weakness all year.

Record vs LAL: 1-1. The Jazz lost on the road and then won at home. They were without Boozer in both, and without Kirilenko as well in the victory. The Jazz have proven they can play with the Lakers, and at 9:1, the Jazz are an attractive bet.

Hornets +1200 – It’s starting to look like the Hornets of 2007/2008 may have been overachievers. They’ve been good this year, but have never really looked like the elite team they were last year. Chris Paul is out of control good but it will take more than than one man to take down the Lakers.

Record vs LAL: 1-3. In the one loss, Gasol had 10pts and 5pfs in 42min, hardly a common occurrence. The Hornets got beat by the Lakers last season and they’ve really taken a step back this year. I don’t see this Hornets team having much of a shot in a seven game series with the Lakers.

Houston +1400 – As a bit of a McGrady-hater, it would be pretty funny to me if the Rockets get their first playoff series victory in a while with McGrady sitting out. And this team has been impressive since he went down. They’ve put on one stifling defensive show after another and Yao is still 7’5, last time I checked. They’re a classic playoff team, and they have the best shot at bothering Bryant and putting some serious scoring weight on Gasol. Can he handle it in the playoffs?

Record vs LAL: 0-3. Yes they’re 0-3 but since getting drubbed very early in the season, the Rockets lost by only 5 and 6. In the last game Houston killed themselves with 23 turnovers. If they can clean that up +1400 is definitely a line worth looking at.

Denver +1400 – Denver has really been struggling lately, going 5-5 in their last 10 games. Melo’s (not getting) off-the-court antics are hurting himself and his team again, and coach Karl has been getting some bad reviews. But Billups gives them playoff experience and veteran savvy at point guard, and should be able to keep them competitive. Even with his presence though, I think Denver lacks the discipline and focus to suceed in the playoffs, against the Lakers and against other teams as well.