NBA Playoff Propmania – LeBron James Scoring Prop and More

Check out all the prop action in the BetUS NBA sportsbook by clicking on the “+ Show All Props” icon you’ll see at the bottom of each game line. Along with the player props I discuss here, there are a bunch of interesting game props.

These NBA free picks are all about LeBron, profiling his statistics as a scorer, defender and rebound/assist man.

Prop: LeBron James Total Points

Line: Over 31.5 points -135

Under 31.5 points +105

LeBron James, who by all accounts will soon be named league MVP, did not disappoint in his first playoff game. He dropped 38 points on the Pistons, adding 8 rebounds and 7 assists. He was able to score at will, and the usually strong defense of Tayshaun Prince and Rasheed Wallace seemed almost irrelevant. Bookmakers are expecting that strong scoring to continue, with the over/under set at 31.5 with payoffs of -135 and +105, respectively.

In the regular season, James averaged 28.4pts/game. He only averaged 37.7 minutes, however, whereas he got 41 minutes in game one. I expect a similar number for tonight’s game, which is likely to be another easy Cleveland victory. Prorated to 41 minutes, James’ ppg is 30.9pts.

Cleveland played Detroit four times in the regular season, with James notching 25 (40min), 33 (39min), 20 (31min) and 25 (41 min). Averaged and prorated to 41min/game, that’s 28.0ppg. Prince and Wallace played LeBron decently in the regular season, and I expect them to both step up their individual D for game two.

Many will argue that James steps up his scoring in the playoffs, but in his playoff career he averages only 27.8ppg in 44.5min. Adjusted to 41min/game, that’s only 25.6ppg. Additionally, LeBron has scored much less at home this season than on the road. He’s averaged 28.8ppg at home (prorated to 41min) and 32.9ppg (prorated) away from Quicken Loans Arena.

As much as I hate to bet against James, not a single one of the adjusted averages we’ve looked at are over 31.5, and the under is getting better NBA odds (+105) as well. Look at the over on LeBron’s points total when the series moves to Detroit.

Top Pick: LeBron James total points UNDER 31.5 +105

Prop: Tayshaun Prince Total Points

Line: Over 12.5 Points -115

Under 12.5 Points -115

Maybe the most impressive element to LeBron’s season has been his emergence as an elite one-on-one perimeter defender. He has even gotten some talk as a potential defensive player of the year. Last night, he absolutely shut down Tayshaun Prince, one of Detroit’s leading scorers. Prince scored on 4 points on 38 minutes. Compare that to his season average of 14.2 points in 37.3 minutes. It’s easy to understand, a combination of two factors: Prince gets worn out as James’ primary defender, and James plays shut down man to man defense against him.

In their four regular season matchups, Prince scored 9 in 33mins, 11 in 36mins, 10 in 30min and 8 in 33min. He didn’t surpass over/under mark of 12.5 points once, and prorated to the 38 minutes he played last night (a reasonable number), that’s an average of only 10.9ppg.