in NBA Props
NBA Playoff Propmania – Rockets vs. Trail Blazers Props
by Sasha Best
The Rockets destroyed the Blazers in game one, but everyone, including the Rockets, is anticipating a different game two. I think this one will be an exciting game. On top of your regular spread and totals betting, check out all the prop action in the BetUS NBA sportsbook by clicking on the “+ Show All Props” icon. Check out my three free prop picks for tonight’s game, especially my special Yao Ming total points top pick, which is at the end.
Prop: Total 3 Pt Shots Made
Line: Over 13.5 3pt Makes -110
Under 13.5 3pt Makes -120
The Trail Blazers have made an average of 7.3 3pt shots per game this season and have given up only 5.9 3pt makes. Houston has made 7.6 per game and has given up 5.7. If we average the offensive and defensive numbers, we can expect the Blazers to make 6.5 and the Rockets to make 6.8 for a total of 13.3. However, Houston and Portland are both slow paced teams, so you have to adjust those numbers down a bit.
In their first playoff game, Houston made 8 and Portland made only 1, for a total of 9. In their 3 previous regular season meetings, the total number of threes hit was 12 in every game.
The Rockets, led by Battier and Artest, play some of the best perimeter defense in the league, and give up very few 3s per game. With playoff intensity ratcheted up, look to the under for some decent value. Teams also play fewer possessions in the postseason, making our decision to go with the under easier.
Pick: Total 3 Pt Shot Made UNDER 13.5 -120
Prop: Greg Oden Total Points and Rebounds
Line: Over 17.5 Rebounds+Points +120
Under 17.5 Rebounds+Points -150
Greg Oden was literally the only Blazer to have a good game one in this series. He dropped 15 and added 5 rebounds in only 22 minutes. I expect him to get more minutes not only based on that strong performance, but also on the nightmare of a time Pryzbilla had guarding Yao on Sunday. Adelman has even said that he has game planned for Oden starting, in case McMillan goes down that route. In addition, Oden was recovering from an infection on Sunday that is not expected to be bothering him tonight.
If we can game plan for even five more minutes than game one, we’re looking at a very attractive over at the underdog price of +120. Oden averaged 8.9ppg and 7.0rpg for a total of 15.9 in only 21.5 minutes in the regular season. Adjusted to an anticipated 27 minutes tonight, that’s an average rebounds+points total of 20.0.
Pick: Greg Oden Points+Rebounds OVER 17.5 +120
Prop: Yao Ming Total Points
Line: Over 22 Points -115
Under 22 Points -115
Yao averaged 19.7ppg in the regular season in 33.6 min/game. If we adjust that to 38 min, what we should expect him to play in the playoffs (assuming there isn’t another blowout), that’s 22.3ppg. Yao has averaged around the same in the playoffs as he did in the regular for most of his career, so no adjustment needs to be made there.
Against the Blazers in the regular season, he has scored 13 in 41min, 15 in 30min, and 21 in 36min. Prorated to his expected 38 min in this game, he has averaged only 17.4ppg against the Blazers.
In game one Yao just crazy, going 9-9 in the first half for 24 points in 24 minutes. Nate McMillan inexplicably decided to play him straight-up one on one coverage, instead of fronting him in the post, which has been the most successful strategy against the Rockets so far this year. Don’t expect McMillan to get stubborn, considering how his team was blown out at home. I expect Oden and Pryzbilla to front Yao hard in the post, reducing Yao’s touches and his scoring.
Top Pick: Yao Ming Total Points UNDER 22 -115
