NBA Playoffs 4th Quarter Prop Betting – Cleveland at Detroit

The Pistons return to the Motor City down 2-0 and without much in the way of hope. Their bench guys gave them a little something in the 4th Q of game two, but it will take more than that to come out with a win tonight.

The BetUS NBA sportsbook offers a lot of good unorthodox betting options, including a wide range of props, and also quarter by quarter betting. Usually lines are only offered for the 1st quarter, but with the playoffs here, BetUS is offering totals, spread and moneyline action on each and every Q. I’ll give you my over/under total pick for the 4th quarter of tonight’s game, and I’ve thrown in a related bonus pick as well, both picks are at the bottom of the page.

Here’s a look at the 4th quarter totals trends and numbers for tonight’s game three action in Detroit:

4th Quarter Totals Line:

• 44 O/U -115

4th Quarter Totals – Numbers You Need to Know:

• The Cavaliers averaged 24.8pts in the 4th quarter in the regular season.

• The Pistons gave up an average of 23.4pts in the 4th quarter in the regular season.

• The Pistons averaged 22.9pts in the 4th quarter over the entire season.

• The Cavaliers gave up an average of 22.9pts in the 4th quarter in the regular season.

• The Cavaliers averaged 25.0pts on the road in the 4th quarter.

• The Pistons gave up an average of 24.2pts at home in the 4th quarter.

• The Pistons averaged 23.5pts at home in the 4th quarter.

• The Cavaliers gave up an average of 23.0pts on the road in the 4th quarter.

• In six meetings this season (including the playoffs), the Pistons and the Cavaliers have averaged 42.3 points combined in the 4th.

Analysis: Looking at the overall numbers (no adjustment for away/home), the Cavaliers should score 24.1pts against the Pistons in the 4th, while the Pistons should score 22.9pts. I got those numbers by averaging what the Cavaliers score and what the Pistons give up, and vice versa. Add those two numbers together and you get a total of 47pts. If we adjust and use the away/home numbers, we have the Cavaliers scoring an average of 24.6pts, while the Pistons figure to net 23.3pts, giving us a projected total of just under 48pts. The totals line for the fourth is only 44, leaving a 3-4pt gap between what the numbers say and what the bookmakers say. That difference is very significant. Here’s another line you might want to consider: the over/under on the Cavs’ score in the 4th is 22.5pts. Our calculations expect them to be in the 24-25 point range.

Pick: Total 4th Quarter Scoring OVER 44 -115

Bonus Pick: Cleveland Cavaliers 4th Quarter Scoring OVER 22.5 -115