Rockets vs. Lakers Game 5 Player Props – Artest and Bryant

As I’m sure you all know, Yao Ming is out for the rest of the playoffs with a hairline fracture in his left foot. That should have spelled doom for the Rockets’ chances, but they destroyed in Lakers in Game 4. It was a shocking upset, and the Lakers have learned that they can’t take this Houston team for granted, even without Yao to worry about. I’m going to take a look at the player props offered on the two key players in tonight’s Game 5, Ron Artest and Kobe Bryant. I’ll provide some data and some analysis to go along with my free player prop picks.

Ron Artest Total Points

The Line: Rot. Ron Artest Total Points Moneyline

537 Over 20½ Points -105

538 Under 20½ Points -125

The Numbers:

Series: 19.8ppg

Playoffs: 17.3ppg

Regular Season: 17.1ppg

Vs. Lakers (regular season): 13.3ppg

Away (regular season): 17.2ppg

Analysis: I like the under on this bet for a variety of reasons. First, I expect a highly focused game from the Lakers. They were horrible and low on energy for Game 4, and I just can’t see that happening again. Not with Phil Jackson at the helm, and not with Kobe (more on that later). With Yao down, you might believe that there will be more shots for Artest. While that may be the case, they’ll also be more difficult shots, because there’s no one left healthy for the Rockets that you have to double team. Artest has been scoring well this series, but even at that rate he won’t get 21+, and I don’t think he can keep up the hot hand.

Pick: Ron Artest UNDER 20½ Points

Kobe Bryant Total Points

The Line: Rot. Kobe Bryant Total Points Moneyline

545 Over 30½ Points -120

546 Under 30½ Points -110

The Numbers:

Series: 30.0ppg

Playoffs: 28.6ppg

Regular Season: 26.8ppg

Vs. Houston (regular season): 28.3ppg

Home (regular season): 25.1ppg

Analysis: This is something I never say, but you can throw the stats out the window. First, it’s Kobe, and he can generally do whatever he wants on the floor. If he wants to score, he can score. If he wants to distribute, he’ll get his teammates wide open looks. He’s just that good. And tonight he’s going to want to score. In the first round against Utah, Kobe had an ugly Game 3. He shot 5-24 from the field and the Lakers lost (their only loss in that series). Kobe was mad, and he basically came out and said he’d get even. He did. In Game 4 of that series Kobe was 16-24 from the field and scored 38 points. That’s exactly the kind of bounce-back performance I expect tonight. The only way I can see him scoring under 30 is if a couple of his teammates also get hot and the Lakers win in a blowout. In that case, he may not play enough minutes to notch 31+.

Pick: Kobe Bryant OVER 30½ Points