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Western Conference Prop Picks - Mavericks vs. Nuggets Game 5

Bookmark and Share by Charles Jay

Looking at some props for Game 5 of the Western Conference semi-final series between the Dallas Mavericks and Denver Nuggets, which you can find at BetUS by clicking the "Show All Props" link under the game odds:

TEAM WITH HIGHEST SCORING QUARTER

Mavericks +200
Nuggets -260

You look at this proposition on its face and you figure that Dallas, and in Game 4 it was a tie. Since we know it really has minimal (or overrated) impact on who actually wins the game, the side with the better value here is the one where you can take the price.

JAY'S PLAY: MAVERICKS (+200) **

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TOTAL 3 PT SHOTS MADE IN THE GAME

Over 13½ 3 Pt Shots -125
Under 13½ 3 Pt Shots -105

For you "over" fans, this one has perhaps been a little disappointing. This is the breakdown of the three-pointers that were made so far:

GAME 1: Dallas 6, Denver 4, Total = 10
GAME 2: Dallas 8, Denver 8, Total = 16
GAME 3: Dallas 5, Denver 6, Total = 11
GAME 4: Dallas 3, Denver 9, Total = 12

That's an average of 12.25 per game, which is more than one unit below that which is being posted today, and there are reasons for this. One is that the principal scorers in this Dallas starting lineup - Dirk Nowitzki, Josh Howard and Jason Kidd - are not necessarily three-point crazy. Nowitzki took about two three-point shots per game in the regular season, and has attempted even less, on a percentage basis, in the playoffs. Howard has made only seven threes in the entire post-season, and none in this series. Kidd has a better percentage than those guys, but if there is someone guarding him, he's not that good at it. Jason Terry is more of an outside bomber, but together, Howard and Nowitzki took 54% of Dallas' shots in Game 4, and I would expect Dallas to continue to go with what works.

JAY'S PLAY: UNDER 13.5 (-105) **

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TEAM LEADING AFTER 1ST QTR WINS GAME

Yes -200
No +160

If you're a solid "yes man," not so fast. Here's another thing that may surprise you. The leaders at the end of the first quarter thus far have been:

GAME 1: Dallas
GAME 2: Denver
GAME 3: Dallas
GAME 4: Denver

That means in three of the four games, the team with the lead at the end of the first period of play lost the game.

In the opener, Dallas had an eight-point lead at the end of the first quarter, then was out-scored 93-71 the rest of the way. In Game 2, Denver raced out to an eight-point first quarter lead, and then closed strong in the fourth quarter to seal a double-digit win. Dallas led by a 20-18 score at the end of 12 minutes in Game 3, then trailed by three at the half, then re-took the lead by one at the end of the third period. Denver led by eleven points at the end of the first period in Game 4, and still lost.

The conclusion - it's a 48-minute game. One thing does not necessarily cause another.

JAY'S PLAY: NO (+160) ***

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WINNING MARGIN

Nuggets to win by 1-2 pts +800
Nuggets to win by 3-6 pts +350
Nuggets to win by 7-9 pts +450
Nuggets to win by 10-13 pts +400
Nuggets to win by 14-16 pts +750
Nuggets to win by 17-20 pts +750
Nuggets to win by 21 pts or more +600

I left out the parts of this prop with winning margins by the Mavericks (take my word for it, they exist) because I think Denver is going to win the game. When you look at it, the last eight games the Nuggets have won in the Pepsi Center have been by ten points or more. Only one of the last twelve wins overall have been by less than ten points, and that happened to be the Game 3 win in Dallas. If you want to break down these wins, here's the way it looks:

10-13 points -- 3
14-16 points -- 3
17-20 points -- 1
21 points or more -- 4

That's interesting. At the same time, I don't know that I expect a complete blowout here. The Nuggets' win margins against Dallas in the series are by 14, 12 and 1 point, and going back farther into the regular season they won by two, two, ten and three points. If I had to pick one, I might go on the lower end of this double-digit scale.

JAY'S PLAY: NUGGETS TO WIN BY 10-13 POINTS (+400) *