Duke and the Easy Path

The Kansas Jayhawks maybe the number 1 seed in the NCAA’s March Madness tournament but the Duke Blue Devils have the easiest path to final four of the four number seeds.

The Blue Devils had another typical Duke season; they were hovering in the top 5 and had a line on the number one seed all season and in the ACC tournament they didn’t beat any team higher than a 7th seed while winning the ACC tournament for the second straight time and 18th overall.

When the NCAA Selection committee made the tournament draws Sunday night, Coach K’s team had some typical Duke luck (some say NCAA favoritism); with the draw, the Blue Devils have arguably the easiest regional bracket in the field of 65. Their odds to reach the final four are the same as the Syracuse Orangemen at 11/4 and worse than either Kentucky or Kansas but based on the draw, the Blue Devils offer the best value.   

The Duke bias in the NCAA hasn’t been this obvious in years, when you consider that this year’s ACC field was the weakest it’s been in 20 years, they were dumped by Georgetown in January and Maryland in March.  You can argue the number one seed, the Blue Devils did finish 29-5 and from a gambling perspective, they were an impressive 11-4-1 at home.

I know the selection committee doesn’t look at a team’s ATS record but it is a good reflection of how well the team was meeting expectations. However, the decision to give the Blue Devils the easiest path to the Final 4 is harder to justify, considering the much tougher schedules and much better resumes of the other number ones seeds.

If you aren’t a Dukie, there is some hope though the 2, 3 and 4 seeds in the South are all capable of knocking off the Blue Devils.

The number two seed in the region, the Villanova Wildcats (24-7 and 18-12 ATS) is by far a much better team. The Wildcats battled in the tough Big East and until they stumbled against the powers of the Big East, they had a line on a number one seed themselves. College Basketball odds makers are paying 15/4 if Villanova makes the final four.

The Baylor Bears (25-7 and 16-9 ATS) are the number 3 seed in the South Regional, the Bears are a solid scoring team and their size helps them on the defensive side of the ball. Playing in the Big 12, they had to go two to two with the heavyweights of college basketball, Kansas and Kansas State, their results weren’t good but they should do enough to knock off Duke.  If the Beats make the Final 4, the payout would be 12/1.

The Purdue Boilermakers (27-5 and 12-18-2) were capable of knocking off Duke but they lost their best player in Robbie Hummel and have an extremely tough opening-round game and they probably won’t get the chance to face Duke.

The Boilermakers are set to tip off against the Sienna Saints, if you remember last season, Sienna was very kind to bettors in the Tournament, winning their first game straight up as an underdog and then taking Louisville to the wire for an easy cover.

The perception may be that Duke has an easy path but every game in March offers the opportunity for an upset, hence the Madness, now let’s hope for a Southern upset this weekend.

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