NCAA Tournament: Villanova Looks For Return Trip to the Final Four

About 6 weeks ago the Villanova Wildcats were on their way to a #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament.  The Wildcats, who are +1800 in the sportsbook to win the NCAA Championship, had been playing terrific basketball.

‘Nova had lost only once, to Temple 65 to 55 and had racked up 20 wins.  They had already beaten Georgetown, Louisville, Marquette twice and Maryland. 

Then, the wheels fell off and Villanova would lose 6 out of their last 10 games including an 80 to 76 defeat to Marquette in the Big East Tournament.

Can Villanova turn it around in time to make a run in the NCAA Tournament?

South:  #2 Villanova

Villanova did lose 6 out of their last 10 games but the losses weren’t all bad losses.  Losing by 4 points to Marquette isn’t terrible.  Losing by 5 points to Pittsburgh can be forgiven and 2 points to West Virginia in overtime, 68 to 66, can also be forgiven.  The issue losses, though, should bring up a few red flags.  

Cincinnati beat them 77 to 73.  Georgetown beat them 103 to 90 in their rematch and Syracuse beat them 95 to 77.

Offense:  The back court duo of Scottie Reynolds and Corey Fisher is the same that led the Wildcats to the Final Four in 2009.  Reynolds is their leading scorer at 18.5 points per game.  Fisher is their leading assist man at 4 per game. 

Both guys are capable of having big games and without a doubt are the sole reason that the Wildcats are even in the tournament.

Defense:  Villanova’s D isn’t too bad.  They allow teams to shoot 40% from the field and give up, on average, 72.9 points per game.  They are well-coached and out rebound teams, on average, by 6 per game.

Prediction:  We have to remember that the stellar numbers regarding Villanova is because they were awesome before their last 10 games.  For instance, yes, Villanova on averages gives up only 72.9 points per game but in their last 10 games they gave up 73 or more 7 times. 

That’s just not going to cut it in the NCAA Tournament when they figure to play some exceptional teams. Giving up 103 points to Georgetown, who averages 73.2 points per game, and 95 to Syracuse, who averages 81.5 points per game, means that ‘Nova just isn’t playing good defense. 

They even gave up 80 to Marquette in their loss in the Big East Tournament.  Richmond should be a tough team for them to beat in the 2nd Round and I doubt they get past either Notre Dame or Baylor in the Sweet 16.  Then, they most likely will have to face Duke in the Great Eight.

I can’t endorse Villanova to make it to the Final Four much less win the NCAA Championship.

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