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Florida State vs. Duke Free Pick – Take the Seminoles and the Points

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NCAAB:  Duke

Free Pick: Take the Seminoles and the Points

Game-day:  3/3/2009

Tip-off:  8:00 pm est.

The Florida State Seminoles and Duke Blue Devils are both ranked in the Clemson Tigers this past Saturday.  With a terrific against the spread record of 15-7-1, the Seminoles are more often than not a very good bet to cover the spread.  Their ATS record on the road is 6-3-1.

The Duke Blue Devils have been an enigma this season.  At times they look virtually unbeatable.  At other times they are just plain lousy.  Their straight-up record is 24 and 5.  Their overall against the spread record is 14-13-1.  Their ATS record at home is 7-7-1.

Here is the BetUS Sportsbook betting line for this game.

Florida State Seminoles                    +12 -110                      O 139 ½ -110

Duke Blue Devils                               -12 -110                       U 139 ½ -110

Here are a few online wagering trends for this game.

  • The Florida State Seminoles are 11-3-1 against the spread in their last 16 games on the road.
  • The Florida State Seminoles are 13-4-2 ATS in their last 19 games versus a rival from the ACC.
  • The Duke Blue Devils are 6-0-2 ATS in their last 9 games as 7 to 12 ½ point favorite.
  • The Duke Blue Devils are 4 and 1 against the spread in their last 5 games versus a team with a winning road record.

The trends favor both the Blue Devils and the Seminoles in this game.  My problem is with the betting line.  I just don’t get it.  It looks to be awfully high for the Blue Devils who haven’t been all that great this season against the spread.

Yes, there’s no doubt that lately Duke has turned it on, but they will have to turn it up in order to cover a 12 point spread versus Florida State.

Here’s another trend to think about:  Florida State is 8 and 2 ATS in the last 10 meetings between these two teams.

Here’s yet another trend:  Florida State is 4 and 0 in ATS in the last 4 meetings between these two teams at Duke.

All of it adds up to the Seminoles keeping this game close.  Duke is one of those sportsbook loves to make a double-digit favorite in games.

That’s not always a bad thing.  It allows betting fans to take advantage.

I plan on taking advantage by making a wager on the Florida State Seminoles to beat the +12 points in the Sportsbook.