Big 12 Tournament Predictions - Texas Tech vs. #1 Kansas

Thanks to Syracuse losing to Louisville, the Kansas Jayhawks leapfrogged back in to the top spot in the national rankings. They’ve been perhaps the most consistent team in college basketball this year, but they’re betting backers know that this team is difficult to trust when matched up against the oddsmakers. Kansas should dominate the tournament easily, and one school from Texas might give them fits, but the Raiders are not that team.

Obviously, the Texas team I’m referring to is the Longhorns, but we’ll get to that later if that matchup happens as it should. What has derailed Kansas’s popularity amongst the basketball betting public is that they’re just 3-8 ATS in their past 11 games. They may have a top-5 offense, which scored 82.2 points per game, but overall they’ve been caught from behind especially when the spreads are this big.

If the spread is more than -15.0 points in favor of Kansas, the Jayhawks haven’t done so well. They’re a questionable 5-7 ATS with this mammoth spreads in their face and the feistiness that teams show in tournament style play does make me hesitant about standing behind Kansas. What does make me feel better, however, is that Kansas is 7-3 ATS in their past 10 games against the Red Raiders.

Texas Tech Raiders (17-14) vs. #1 Kansas Jayhawks (29-2)
Thursday, March 11th --- Sprint Center --- 12:30pm EST
NCAAB Betting Line: Kansas -17.5 (147.5)

Texas Tech is beyond trust worthy when it comes to betting. They’re heading in to the Big 12 Tournament with an ugly seven-game losing streak that was only snapped when they got to beat up on Colorado. Being 1-7 SU in the past 8 games is inconsequential to this game. What should matter to you is that Texas Tech is just 3-5 ATS during that stretch.

Monster spreads haven’t exactly been Texas Tech’s specialty either. In double-digit spreads of 10.0 or more, Tech is just 2-2 ATS and there aren’t enough metrics out there to appropriately gauge their success when the oddsmakers doubt them so much.

Yet Kansas has almost always had their way with Texas Tech. Their 7-3 SU/ATS record in the series between the Raiders and Jayhawks is more than enough for me to side with the Kansas on this one. But this game will also serve as a preview of whether Kansas can continue to overcome large point spreads, which is key to their success against the college basketball spread going through the Big 12 Tournament and on to March Madness. Stay tuned.