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Big East Showdown in the Elite 8 - Villanova vs. Pittsburgh

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NCAA Basketball Sports Betting

Pittsburgh Panthers (31-4 SU, 17-14 ATS)
NCAA Tournament - East Regional Final (@ Boston)
Saturday, March 28

BetUS NCAA Basketball Sports Betting Odds:  PITTSBURGH -2, Total 142

Here are some of the NCAA basketball sports betting trends as they relate to this matchup:

  • VILL has won six of its last seven games SU
  • VILL has played four of its last six games OVER the total
  • PITT has won 13 of its last 15 games SU
  • PITT is 0-4 ATS in its last four games
  • PITT has played four of its last five games UNDER the total

Also...

  • PITT has covered four of the last five meetings
  • The last six meetings have gone UNDER the total
  • PITT has had the shooting edge in nine of the last ten meetings
  • PITT has had the rebounding edge in seven of the last eight meetings
  • VILL has made more three-pointers in five of the last eight meetings

These teams got here in distinctly different ways. Pittsburgh, which was beaten by Xavier, trailing 54-52 before rallying to win a 60-55 decision. It was Levance Fields who came to the rescue, making a three-pointer and a lay-up in the last minute to seal things up.

(Click here for your printable March Madness bracket)

Villanova has simply mowed through people. The Wildcats beat American 80-67 in the opener, which was not unexpected, but the destructions of Duke (77-54) were a surprise to many. Those teams had a great recent history of success, but were dispatched rather easily by Villanova's combination of strength, quickness and balance. Dante Cunningham had 14 points and 11 rebounds, and the Wildcats' defense held Duke to just 27% shooting, including 5-for-27 from three-point range and, punctuated by a lousy 1-for-14 performance by Gerald Henderson.

'Nova also dominated the glass, out-rebounding the Blue Devils by a 46-32 margin. That same thing is not likely to happen against Pitt, which led the nation in rebound margin. DeJuan Blair, the 6'7" de facto center, has been on a rampage for Pitt, pulling down 45 boards in the three NCAA games. Sam Young chips in a little along those lines too; he's also had 51 points in the last two games.

Obviously, both of these teams are in the Big East, and they did play once this season. In the last college game to be held at the Spectrum, Reggie Redding came though with 18 points and seven rebounds, while Cunningham had 15 points, as Blair got himself into foul trouble. Pittsburgh missed all ten of its three-pointers in the second half, and turned the ball over 17 times.

Could all that stuff happen again? Maybe not, but the fact of the matter is that Villanova is playing some its best basketball of the year right now. They've got a heck of an ensemble, including plenty of guards to throw at a Pitt team that is not all that deep. The edge Villanova has at the free throw line (75%-67%) may be telling as well. We're choosing to believe that those Wildcat romps are not deceiving at all, and we'll be happy to grab the points with Villanova, the two-point underdog in the BetUS NCAA Sportsbook.

JAY'S PLAY:  VILLANOVA +2
(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)