CBI Semi's - Stanford Cardinals at Oregon State
by Charles Jay
NCAA Basketball Sports Betting
Oregon State Beavers(15-17 SU, 12-14-1 ATS)
Wednesday, March 25
BetUS NCAA Basketball Sports Betting Odds: STANFORD -3.5, Total 128
Here are some of the NCAA basketball sports betting trends as they relate to this matchup:
- STAN has won and covered five of its last seven games
- STAN has played six of its last eight games OVER the total
- STAN has covered three of its last nine road games
- STAN has lost nine of its last 12 road games SU
- STAN has played 16 of its last 22 road games OVER the total
- OSU is 1-4-1 ATS in its last six games
- OSU has lost four of its last six games SU
- OSU has played nine of its last 13 games UNDER the total
- OSU has won four of its last five home games SU
- OSU has played seven of its last eight home games UDNER the total
Also...
- STAN has covered 13 of the last 18 meetings
- STAN has won 18 of the last 21 meetings SU
- Five of the last seven meetings have gone UNDER the total
- STAN has covered ten of the last 11 meetings as the road team
- STAN has won nine of the last 11 meetings SU as the road team
- Four of the last five meetings in Corvallis have gone UNDER the total
- STAN has had the shooting dge in six of the last eight meetings
- STAN has had the rebounding edge in seven of the last nine meetings
- STAN has made more three-pointers in seven of the last eight meetings
Interestingly enough, Oregon State finished ahead of Stanford in the Pacific 10 standings, racking up a 7-11 record, while Stanford was just 6-12. That must be why they are hosting yet another CBI game, despite a 15-17 overall mark. Either that, or the organizers of this tournament, the Gazelle Group, are looking for massive tax breaks or perhaps a bailout from Oregon State coach Craig Robinson's brother-in-law, Barack Obama. Certainly they have done what they could to get OSU this far, with a decent draw that brought Houston and Vermont to Corvallis. Do you realize that this team could win the CBI and still be sitting at the .500 mark?
(click here for your printable Sweet 16 bracket)
In all fairness, though, Oregon State has done a very good job. They were able to slow Houston down to the tune of a 49-45 win, and won despite its third straight game shooting below 40%. The Beavers got hot against Vermont, shooting 52% and holding the opponent to one field goal in the overtime period as they eked out a 71-70 win. They got 30 points in the paint, and forced 16 turnovers, which was encouraging. On the other hand, Vermont hit 51% from the field and also had nine three-pointers.
Obviously these teams are no stranger to each other. They are playing for the fourth time this season; Oregon State swept both regular-season clashes, scoring well above their season average in those games, banging out a 77-62 victory at Palo Alto on January 24 and a 66-54 triumph at Corvallis on February 19. Then they met in the conference tournament at the Staples Center, and OSU shot just 39% in a 62-54 loss, though they were within a point twice in the last few minutes. Anthony Goods scored 23 points for Stanford in that game, but he shot just 6-of-17 from the field.
This season there was a different composition to the Stanford roster, as the Lopez brothers, seven-footers who ruled the lane, left for the NBA and this team had to go about its business without a lot of useful size, though 6'8" forward Lawrence Hill (13.6 ppg) has performed well up front.
Still the 1-3-1 zone employed by Robinson has the potential to be very troublesome for teams. There is enthusiasm in the crowd, even though it's not a throng they're playing in front of (just over 4000 for the last game). Perhaps more importantly, Stanford's defense is porous, and Oregon State was able to solve it with the patient, Princeton-style attack. Despite shooting over 51% in the CBI thus far, we see no reason to lay points on the road here. Let's take with Oregon State, the 3.5-point underdog in the BetUS Sportsbook.
JAY'S PLAY: OREGON STATE +3.5
(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)
