CBI Tourney Betting: Wisconsin-Green Bay vs Akron

Akron may be suffering from a little bit of emotional drain following a loss in overtime to Ohio in the Mid-American Conference final. That's how close they got to an invitation to the NCAA Tournament. It is a problem of their own making; the Zips, who shot over 43% for the season, hit only 36% of their attempts in that game.

Wisconsin-Green Bay Phoenix (21-12 SU, 12-12-3 ATS) at Akron Zips (24-10 SU, 14-15-2 ATS)
CBI Tournament
Wednesday, March 17 - 7 PM ET
NCAA Basketball Betting Odds: AKRON -7, Total 132

Even though the program has won 20 or more games for the fifth straight season, Akron's body of work doesn't suggest it would have made much noise in the Big Dance. They lost to North Carolina State, Texas A&M, Rhode Island and Virginia Commonwealth in their most important non-conference games, and hung an early loss on Arkansas-Pine Bluff, which earned its way into the field of 64 with a win over Winthrop on Tuesday. Akron is a difficult team to defend, with no less than seven players who averaged between 6.9 and 10.1 points per contest.

Here are some of the NCAAB betting trends as they relate to this matchup:

• WGB has won four of its last six games SU
• WGB has played six of its last nine games UNDER the total
• WGB has played four of its last six road games UNDER the total
• AKR has won nine of its last 12 games SU
• AKR has played four of its last six games OVER the total
• AKR is 2-6-1 ATS in its last nine home games
• AKR has won 16 of its last 20 home games SU
• AKR has played five of its last seven home games OVER the total

Wisconsin-Green Bay looked like it was going to be a major Horizon League contender, perhaps a challenger for Butler, in the early going. After a competitive effort in a season-opening loss to UAB, the Phoenix beat Kent State, the later Wisconsin. They finished the season in third place in the Horizon, seven games behind Butler, and suffered a very disappointing loss in the second round of conference tournament action, dropping a decision to Detroit.

There is evidence to suggest that UWGB is a bit angry over that defeat, as well as a first-round defeat suffered at the hands of Vermont in last season's tourney. In that Horizon tournament loss, Troy Cotton made just four of 11 shots, while Rahmon Fletcher was just one for 10. They are clearly capable of doing much better. In fact, the team was over 50% in each of its previous two games.

Akron is a club that had trouble covering numbers at home with seven covers in 19 games. If UWGB isn't too rusty (hasn't played since March 5), they have all it takes to make this close. We'll take the seven points.

JAY'S PLAY: WISCONSIN-GREEN BAY +7 ***
(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)