College Basketball Betting - Florida State vs Gonzaga

This is one of those games were the objectives, in terms of style and pace, are going to be different between the two teams. Gonzaga is a team that likes to move it up the floor, and although they aren't necessarily a team that wants to throw a lot of three-point shots up there, they are a proficient shooting club, making 49.4% of all shots, one of the best figures in the country.

Florida State Seminoles (22-9 SU, 8-18 ATS) vs. Gonzaga Bulldogs (26-6 SU, 14-12-1 ATS)

Friday, March 19 - 7:10 PM ET
: FLORIDA STATE -1.5, Total 132

Here are some of the trends as they relate to this matchup:

• FSU has covered one of its last five games
• FSU has won five of its last seven games SU
• FSU has played six of its last seven games UNDER the total
• GONZ has won 18 of its last 21 games SU
• GONZ has played seven of its last ten games UNDER the total
• GONZ is 6-3-1 ATS in its last ten games

The question is whether the 'Zags will meet their match in the Seminoles, who lead the nation in field goal percentage defense, allowing opponents to shoot only 37.4%. Considering that this figure was posted even after losing Toney Douglas, the ACC defensive player of the year, to the NBA (now starting at point guard for the New York Knicks), this had been a tremendous job done by coach Leonard Hamilton, who has carried this defensive credo with him wherever he's gone.

Yes, defense is the reason the Seminoles are in the 65-team NCAA field. The reason they have lost nine games and aren't seeded higher is that they sometimes can't hit the side of a barn on offense. When Douglas left, FSU also lost its most creative and intuitive offensive player, and they haven't found a replacement for what he brought to the table. That certainly handicaps this team, which ultimately might not be able to trade baskets.

However, the question before us, as part of the "The Total Picture," is whether Florida State can impose its pace on the Bulldogs, and control things in the middle on the defensive end. When you look at a team that has scored 52, 61, 51 and 50 points in the last four games, they may not be able to score points on many people. Sure, Gonzaga is not as good on defense as they are on offense, but they still hold foes to 40.5% shooting.

Perhaps the best FSU can hope for is to slow this game down and "shorten" it, and hope that, with the strong front court duo of Solomon Alabi (2.4 blocks per game) and Chris Singleton (1.5 blocks) that they can force almost all of Gonzaga's offense to the outside. It's fair to say that Gonzaga has faced some out of conference teams that are not of the run 'n gun variety. Their game with Michigan State totaled 146 points, while the encounter with Wisconsin in Maui went to 135. Against Cincinnati the scorer reached only 120. Gonzaga was also stymied by Duke, scoring only 41 points.

I can conceivably see Gonzaga winning this game, even if they don't score that many points. FSU is challenged to put the ball in the basket. Our opinion on the total is that it will go UNDER the 132.

JAY'S PLAY: UNDER 132 **
(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)