College Basketball Betting - Wake Forest vs Texas

Texas was 17-0 at one time, but then things started to collapse. They have lost nine of their last 16 games and have been on the winning side of the NCAA basketball betting lines in only three of the last 20 games. They come in here with no head of steam, having lost by 19 points to Baylor in the Big 12 tournament. They are not a team that will last that long, even if they get by Wake Forest.

Wake Forest Demon Deacons (19-10 SU, 15-11 ATS) vs. Texas Longhorns (24-9 SU, 11-18 ATS)
Thursday, March 18 - 9:35 PM ET
: TEXAS -5.5, Total 147.5

Here are some of the NCAA basketball betting trends as they relate to this matchup:

• WAKE has covered seven of its last ten games
• WAKE has won 15 of its last 23 games SU
• WAKE has lost five of its last six games SU
• WAKE has played four of its last five games UNDER the total
• TEX is 0-5 ATS in its last five games
• TEX is 3-17 ATS in its last 20 games
• TEX has played its last four games OVER the total

Wake Forest has no momentum either, having lost five of its last six. The 21-point loss to Miami in the ACC tournament was even more embarrassing than Texas' defeat to Baylor. Efforts of 47 points against Florida State and 54 against North Carolina State down the stretch were clearly nothing to brag about either.

Texas is a team lacking point guard leadership right now. Dogus Balbay is out for the season with a knee injury, as is Varez Ward. Things are being pieced together at that position by Rick Barnes right now, and Wake Forest will have an edge at the position with the more experienced Ishmael Smith. Still there is obviously something that has been lacking in this Wake Forest offense, and they have had to work even harder on the defensive end (38.3% FG allowed) to make up for it.

Wake Forest has played only eight of 23 games over the total, and since they are the ones with the experienced hand to dictate tempo, we think they will probably be able to do a better job of it than Texas, which may not even be able to convert all that much of it gets the ball inside, because (a) Al-Farouq Aminu is a formidable force for Wake Forest in the paint, and (b) It is no guarantee that Dexter Pittman, who is 66% from the field, can make a basket unless he is standing directly under it. Wake Forest only allows 28% from the arc, which makes this team one of the nation's leaders in that department.

Wake Forest should be able to extract matchup advantages, and is a very live dog, but that helps us with the total as well. We're going UNDER the 147.5 points as they are posted in the March Madness NCAA basketball betting odds.

(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)