Elite 8 Weekend - No. 1 Louisville vs. No. 2 Michigan State
by Robby Maddux
Midwest Region - No. 1 Louisville vs. No. 2 Michigan State - 2:20pm EST - Lucas Oil Stadium (Indianapolis, IN)
Louisville (31-5 SU, 22-14-0 ATS) enters this contest coming off one of the biggest blowouts in regional history with a 103-64 victory over Arizona. Earl Clark led the dismantling of the Wildcats on Friday, scoring 19 points and collected nine rebounds as the Cardinals cruised to an easy cover being favored by 9-points. It was Louisville's first cover in this year's dance. BetUS NCAA basketball odds favor the Cardinals by -6½.
—Cardinals are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games after scoring more than 90 points in their previous game.
—Cardinals are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 non-conference games.
—Cardinals are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 vs. Big Ten.
Louisville was jaw-dropping efficient in the highest-scoring game in its NCAA tournament history, shooting 57.6 percent from the field with 29 assists on 38 baskets. They shot a blistering 48 percent from beyond the arc. It was by far the Cardinals’ largest margin of victory in their long NCAA tournament history. If they play the same on Sunday, against second-seeded Michigan State, the Cardinals will return to the Final Four for the first time since 2005.
The Spartans (29-6 SU, 19-12-1 ATS) beat Kansas, the defending champions, 67-62 in the second semifinal game in money-making fashion as the 1-point favors. Kalin Lucas struggled throughout much of the game but down the stretch he was cash, scoring seven points in the final 49 seconds, including 5-for-5 on free throws, to help Michigan State rally for the win and show why he was the Big Ten player of the year.
—Spartans are 20-8-1 ATS in their last 29 NCAA Tournament games.
—Spartans are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games.
—Spartans are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games.
—Spartans are 22-8-1 ATS in their last 31 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
—Spartans are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 neutral site games as an underdog.
—Spartans are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
Analysis: Michigan State showed poise to overcome a 13-point deficit in the first half to advance. They also beat the defending champs earlier this season, and the Spartans beat Kansas again on Friday with fundamentals and execution. The Spartans went 16 of 17 from the free throw line and committed just 13 turnovers, solidifying a well coached team. There's no way Louisville puts together another game like Friday's thrashing of Arizona. Their hot hand cools way off and may even play flat after shooting their wad in its last game. Spartan fans, see you in the Final Four.
