March Madness Betting Picks - #14 Montana vs. #3 New Mexico
by Tim Furious
New Mexico is facing a team that is uncanny against the spread to open up their run in the East Region of March Madness betting. I really thought that New Mexico was a team poised to make some noise in the Mountain West Conference, but they fell short of my expectations and those of their betting faithful.
With a dangerous betting line awaiting them against Montana, they certainly have plenty to prove.
The guy that has the most on the line for New Mexico is Darington Hobson, their star swingman who can play several position.
As a junior, he has plenty of experience to boast, and his long, 6-foot-7 frame has torched teams for 16.2 points per game. He’s one of the guys to watch in the tournament, but that doesn’t necessarily make the Lobos a safe bet.
In their past 6 games, the Lobos have gone just 1-5 ATS. One of the misleading things about that particular trend is that they’re also 15-1 SU in their past 16 games and since they were considered to be the premier team in the Mountain West, they began to receive huge betting lines.
The team that gave them loads of trouble on the betting line was Air Force, which faced 21-point and 17.5-point betting lines that favored New Mexico. Air Force lost both of their games by an average of -4.5 points.
What those games told us is that while New Mexico is a solid scoring team, they have plenty of trouble controlling the tempo of the game.
#14 Montana Grizzlies (22-9) vs. #3 New Mexico Lobos (29-4)
Thursday, March 18th
HP Pavilion --- 9:40pm EST
College Basketball Betting Line: New Mexico -9 (134)
Unlike the Lobos, the Montana Grizzlies are certainly going to get some looks because of their betting trends. The Grizzlies went a promising 9-2 SU and ATS in their final 11 games.
Even more delightful for those of you wanting to venture a bet on Montana is that they’re 6-2 ATS when listed as underdogs.
The problem with betting Montana tonight is that they’re a one-man band. Their star guard, Anthony Johnson, scores 19.6 points per game and decimated Weber State single handedly in the tournament title game with 42-points.
The key to stopping Montana seems easy enough and it will be up to New Mexico to finally sack up and play some defense in an effort to stop Johnson from making fools of them.
Normally I wouldn’t side with a team like New Mexico, but there are lots of things to like about them despite their productivity.
The fact that Montana relies solely on one player that hasn’t matched up against better teams this year makes me worried to be convinced that Montana can cause an upset on the betting line.
This could very well New Mexico’s last chance to garner the faith of the betting public, but this matchup says that they have the chance to do so. Just. Stop. Johnson.
Furious Free Pick: New Mexico -9 (UNDER) >> Sign up here <<
