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NCAA Basketball Betting – Louisville (-11) vs. Arkansas

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Louisville Cardinals (0-0 SU & ATS) vs. Arkansas Razorbacks (1-0 SU, 0-0 ATS)

Tuesday, November 17 - 7:30 PM ET

BetUS NCAA Basketball Sports Betting Odds:  LOUISVILLE -11

Here are some of the NCAA basketball betting trends as they relate to this matchup:


  • LOU has covered 17 of its last 25 games
  • LOU has won 13 of its last 14 games SU
  • LOU has won and covered eight of its last nine road games
  • ARK has lost 11 of its last 13 games SU
  • ARK has won 18 of its last 25 home games SU
  • ARK has lost four of its last six home games SU

Rick Pitino's off-season was eventful, to be sure. He was accused of paying off a woman he was having an affair with, who was allegedly trying to extort him for millions of dollars. That saga continues to go on.

As far as basketball is concerned, Earl Clark and Terrence Williams, the dynamic forward duo, moved on to the NBA, and were both first-round draft picks. The thing about those players is that they were incredibly versatile performers, especially Williams, who actually assumed the role of "point forward" as Pitino was generally dissatisfied with his point guards for most of last season. Clark was incredibly athletic, and could play like both a small forward and a power forward. So it's like having to replace two and a half or three players with those two guys alone.

John Pelphrey, the coach at Arkansas Razorbacks, is a former player for Pitino at Kentucky, and he is at the moment apparently ill-equipped, as suspensions have left him with five scholarship players. Certainly he hopes to get off to the same start as this team had last year, when it beat teams like Texas and Oklahoma in the early going before collapsing.

Pitino's teams frequently get out to defend on the perimeter, so it is unlikely that sophomore guard Rotnei Clarke will get as hot as he did in the opener against Alcorn State, when he hit 13 out of 17 three-pointers en route to 51 points. However, you've got to be careful with him nonetheless, because he led all the nation's freshmen last year in three-point percentage (39.3%). Certainly Clarke has the ability to keep the Hogs close, but it is doubtful that the Razorbacks will have a lot of continuity against Pitino's pressure defense without Courtney Fortson in the lineup. Fortson, a speedy point guard who makes things happen, is one of the players suspended, as is Stefan Welsh, Fortson's backcourt mate from last year who was also a double-digit scorer.

Support players like Marcus Britt and Michael Sanchez are also out. That means that even though Marshawn Powell, who could be a sensational freshman, is present and accounted for and joins Michael Washington (who led the SEC in rebounding last year) to put a formidable combo up front. That might be countered effectively by Louisville's strength, which is likely to be up front with Samardo Samuels, but Louisville won't be coming with much size, instead employing a three-guard lineup. If Arkansas was at full strength, I would think they could challenge for the straight-up win, since Louisville under Pitino has gotten off such lousy starts. As it is, they can still hang in there with the talent they have and with three-point shooting.

We'll grab Arkansas, the 11-point underdog in the college basketball betting odds, in what is a small recommendation.

JAY'S PLAY:   ARKANSAS +11 **

(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)