NCAA Basketball Betting - Missouri State at Arkansas

Missouri State Bears (10-0 SU, 8-2 ATS) at Arkansas Razorbacks (6-5 SU, 0-4 ATS)

Tuesday, December 22 - 8 PM ET

NCAA Basketball Betting Odds:  PICK'EM

Here are some of the college basketball betting trends as they relate to this matchup:

• MSU has covered seven of its last eight games
• MSU has won and covered four of its last six road games
• MSU has lost 19 of its last 26 road games SU
• MSU has played six of its last eight road games OVER the total
• ARK has won four of its last five games SU
• ARK has lost 16 of its last 23 games SU
• ARK has won four of its last five home games SU

There has been a remarkable transformation with Missouri State (formerly Southwest Missouri State) where coach Cuonzo Martin, who lost 20 games his first season, is off to an undefeated start, decorated with wins over Auburn and Tulsa and an 8-2 ATS mark in ncaab betting. They've got personnel too; when you have a seven-footer able to come off the bench and score in double figures, as they do with Caleb Patterson, that becomes a luxury not many Missouri Valley Conference entries can draw upon. Another bonus is a guard who can come off the bench with a ratio f 3.5 assist to every turnover, but that's what they have in Justin Fuehrmeyer.

There is a guy on this team who goes nuts with triples. That's Adam Leonard, a transfer out of Eastern Kentucky who has shot 47% from beyond the arc, making a trio of treys per game. Surely Arkansas, which can be challenged fundamentally at times, has to get out on the perimeter and take care of business, because Leonard's backcourt partner, Kyle Weems, can stick it from long range as well.

A couple of things worry us here - Missouri State does not have what you would call a "breakthrough" win, at least one that would make everyone on the national scene take notice. That wouldn't come even with a victory over Arkansas. The Hogs, by the same token, may be on a four-game winning streak, but against nobodies. When they have stepped up, they've been stepped ON - by Louisville by a 30-point margin, and by 20 points against Oklahoma, making them big losers in college basketball betting.

Michael Washington is back for Arkansas, but Cortney Fortson is not. Rotnei Clarke, who had 13 three-pointers in the opener against Alcorn State and added ten more in a later game against East Tennessee State, has made only ten in his last five games.

I think the Bears have the size and depth to go into Bud Walton Arena and pull off a victory, so we will go with Missouri State as a pick'em in ncaab betting. 

JAY'S PLAY:  MISSOURI STATE pick ***

(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)