NCAA Betting: St Mary’s vs Villanova

When St. Mary’s and Villanova do battle in the second round of the NCAA betting odds on Saturday afternoon, it’ll be a matchup between one team who was red hot in their first round game, and one which was abysmal. But be careful where you put your money, because those two teams are not who you think.

No. 10 St. Mary’s Gaels (27-5 SU, 21-9-1 ATS) vs. No. 2 Villanova Wildcats (25-7 SU, 18-13 ATS): NCAA Tournament Second Round

Saturday, March 20: 1:05 p.m. CBS

NCAA Betting Odds: Villanova -4 ½

Here are some NCAA Betting Trends which may impact this game:

St. Mary’s: 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games
St. Mary’s: 5-0 SU in their last 5 games

Villanova: 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games
Villanova: 2-3 SU in their last 5 games

That’s right, it was Villanova that was almost an upset victim on Thursday afternoon, as they would have become just the fifth No. 2 seed in the history of the NCAA Tournament to lose their first round game. They survived in overtime against a pesky, talented Robert Morris team.

Villanova Wildcats biggest problem Thursday was that they clearly weren’t focused, something that shouldn’t be a problem Saturday. In the game, their two leading scorers- Scottie Reynolds and Corey Fisher- were benched to start, before coming in about four minutes in. While both were productive, neither was their usual self. However, Reynolds did make a lot of big free throws down the stretch to seal the victory. He ended the game 15-16 from the foul line, many in the final minutes of regulation and overtime.

As for St. Mary’s they hardly had any trouble at all Thursday, and breezed past Richmond in the first round. The Gaels may have had the MVP of Day One on their roster, in center Omar Samhan.

If you don’t know Samhan, make sure to Tivo this one. You don’t want to miss it. Samhan was the star of stars Thursday, as he was simply unstoppable, tallying a staggering 29 points and 11 rebounds, in just 28 minutes of play, because of foul trouble. As a team, St. Mary’s hit 10 of 21 3-pointers, winning 80-71 in a game that wasn’t nearly that close.

There is no simple way to put this: If St. Mary’s and Villanova both play similarly to how they did on Thursday, this will be the upset special of the weekend.

While we’re not saying it’s going to happen, St. Mary’s Gaels does seem to be the play in the betting odds.

The truth is, as good as Villanova’s guards have been all season, there is just one thing they can’t account for, a big guy who can score around the rim. It’s what gave them trouble in all their losses, and something St. Mary’s most certainly has with Samhan.

Even with constant pressure, expect Samhan to have a big game, allowing this one to stay close. We’re not telling you to pick the upset straight up if you’re not comfortable, just gladly take the 4 ½ points the Gaels are getting and run with them.

St. Mary’s should be your pick in Saturday afternoon’s betting odds.

Aaron’s Pick: St. Mary’s +4.5