Up to NCAA B Free Picks

in NCAA B Free Picks

NCAA Championship Final: Butler is a Big Underdog Against Duke on Monday Night

Bookmark and Share by D.S. Williamson

The Duke Blue Devils did exactly what was expected of them this past Saturday. Although West Virginia was the “hot” team among sports gamblers, the betting line appeared to be flowing their way before tip-off this past Saturday, the Duke Blue Devils used their superior size up front and terrific 3 point shooters to destroy Bob Huggins’ team 78 to 57 as 2 ½ point underdogs.

Now, the Blue Devils face yet another team with a stellar defense. The Butler Bulldogs outlasted the Michigan State Spartans this past Saturday to record a 52 to 50 victory as 1 ½ point favorites. Butler has held every team that they have faced so far in this tournament to under 60 points.

Holding Duke to under 60 points is not going to be easy, that’s a guarantee, but before going into why, let’s take a look at the odds in the NCAA sportsbook for the 2010 NCAA Championship.

Butler Bulldogs +7 -110 O 128 ½ -110
Duke Blue Devils -7 -110 U 128 ½ -110

The trends favor both teams in this game:

  • The Butler Bulldogs are 5 and 1 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight-up win.
  • The Butler Bulldogs are 4 and 1 ATS in their last 5 NCAA Tournament games.
  • The Duke Blue Devils are 5 and 0 ATS in their last 5 games as the favorite.
  • The Duke Blue Devils are 5 and 0 ATS in their last 5 NCC Tournament games.

Duke has covered in every single one of their NCAA Tournament games, but that’s not the reason that they are going to cover on Monday night.

The Butler Bulldogs have beaten some pretty stout teams in their run to the NCAA Championship Final. Among those teams were the Syracuse Orange and the Kansas State Wildcats. Both Syracuse and Kansas State were considered two of the top teams in college hoops this past regular season, but neither could get past Butler’s stout defense.

There’s a reason for that. Butler’s defense is good, no doubt, but neither Syracuse, Kansas State nor Michigan State were big enough on the inside to expose Butler’s less than stellar front-court.

Michigan State had the added issue of being without their point-guard, Kalin Lucas. Duke? The Blue Devils, like they did to West Virginia, will hurt the Bulldogs from behind the arc if Butler, as expected, drops players into the lane to contend with Duke’s 7’1” center Brian Zoubek. Zoubek’s been averaging over 10 rebounds per game during this tournament.

Now, if Butler decides to guard Duke’s shooters, then Duke’s inside game will take them to the cleaners. Butler is a very, very good team but they just don’t match-up well with the Blue Devils.

Yes, emotion does mean something in the NCAA Tournament, but emotion can take you only so far. Unless Butler finds a way to hold Duke’s 3 point shooters to about 25% or worse from the field and gets both Zoubek and the 6’10” Mason Plumlee, who spells Zoubek, in early foul trouble, this game could be over before half-time.

Butler didn’t get to the NCAA Championship Final because they were lucky. They faced three teams in succession, Syracuse, Kansas State, and Michigan State, that they matched up very well with. They don’t match up well with the Duke Blue Devils at all.

Duke and Coach K will win the championship on Monday night. They’re also going to cover the spread. They’re the bet.