NCAA Midwest Betting Predictions - #16 Lehigh vs. #1 Kansas
by Tim Furious
You guys know the rules about betting on a #16 vs. #1 game. Obviously the Kansas Jayhawks are going to win this game, but betting these huge spreads can be a great way to get your March Madness betting off to a horrendous start.
Kansas has turned around their betting misfortunes late in the season, but clearing a line that big is still a daunting task for any team.
The Jayhawks are the best team in the country, and their steady two-loss record is sterling proof of their consistency. In the last five games of the season, they finished with a 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS record which included two blowouts of Kansas State.
One thing you need to look at when covering these teams is how they close the spread. Using the oddsmakers’ betting lines as a barometer of betting action, just measure the point differential between the spread and the final score. Basically, if Kansas is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games, how well did they do against the spread?
Essentially, the metrics on Kansas is that they’ve been able to close the spread by -5.2 points more than the spread. Against Kansas State, they had a -6.0 point line in their favor, and they won the game 72-64 with a spread differential of +2.0.
Does that make any sense? I sure hope so. If you want to make money on March Madness, you have to know teams better than just memorizing their star players.
#16 Lehigh Mountain Hawks (22-10) vs. #1 Kansas Jayhawks (32-2)
Thursday, March 18th
Ford Center --- 9:30pm EST
NCAAB Betting Line: Kansas -25.5 (147.5)
The problem with this game no matter how you look at the numbers, trends and intangibles of Kansas is that we have no idea how good Lehigh really is. The only notable teams they played this year were Richmond (lost 53-65) and Dayton (lost 71-89).
That being said, they could just come out cold blooded with nothing to lose and shoot the lights out hoping to catch fire.
A huge line is always overwhelming, and I never want to be stuck chasing that many points especially when I don’t have a lot of information betting-wise on the other team.
If you do follow what little numbers there are, you have to envision Kansas winning this game by 30-points. Do you really see an end score with a point differential that high?
Neither do I.
Furious Free Pick: Lehigh +25.5 (UNDER) > Start betting here! <
