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NCAA Tournament 2010 Predictions: Siena vs Purdue

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The NCAA Tournament is- and will forever always be- about the upsets. And with Purdue battling a major injury, can Siena pull a major one in the NCAA betting odds Friday afternoon?

No. 13 Siena Saints (27-6 SU, 16-14-1 ATS) vs. No. 4 Purdue Boilermakers (27-5 SU, 12-18-2 ATS)

NCAA Tournament First Round

Friday, March 19: 2:30 p.m. CBS

NCAA Betting Odds: Purdue -4

Here are some NCAAB Betting Trends which may impact this game:

  • Siena: Total has gone UNDER in 5 of their last 5 games
  • Siena: 2-3 ATS in their last 5 games
  • Purdue: 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games
  • Purdue: Total has gone UNDER in 4 of their last 5 games

Purdue comes into this game on a dismal stretch, as they haven’t covered a single point spread since the loss of forward Robbie Hummel to a season ending ACL injury.

Hummel was this team’s leader emotionally, as well as their second leading scorer and rebounder, when he went down.

In his absence the Boilermakers have looked dazed and confused, most notably in a Big 10 Tournament loss to Minnesota, when they scored only 42 points, including 11 in an embarrassing first half.

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For Purdue to win this game, they will need to force feed the ball down low to forward JaJuan Johnson.

Simply put, there isn’t a single player Siena has, that can matchup with the 6’10 Johnson. But will the Boilermakers exploit that? Johnson averaged 15 points and seven rebounds on the season. Guard E’Twaun Moore needs a huge game as well, as he was this team’s leading scorer at close to 17 points a game.

He scored just two points in the loss to Minnesota.

As for Siena, well, they’re just not your typical mid-major team. This is now the Saints third NCAA Tournament in a row, and they’ve won their opener in each of the last two.

Offensively, few teams anywhere in college basketball have a better floor leader than Ronald Moore. Moore may not be a name you know, but you should, as he led the country in assists, averaging right around eight per game.

Alex Franklin and Edwin Ubiles are a fierce tandem down low, combining to average over 30 points a game. It was Ubiles’ season-high 27 in the MAAC Conference championship game that got them here.

Again, Siena isn’t your typical mid-major. But can they make it three in a row in the NCAA Tournament? Absolutely. And they will.

Siena comes into this game hot and experienced, and will not be intimidated if they fall down early. They overcame a huge deficit in beating Fairfield in the conference championship game, and are used to playing in tight, meaningful games.

Purdue just got a bad draw here, and they’ll pay…With a loss in the college basketball betting odds. Siena should be your play here at least to cover the four points they’re getting, if not to win straight up.

Aaron’s Winning Pick: Siena +4